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Federal control, through the Federal Bureau of manufacture by which efficiency is of Labor or the Federal Industrial Commis- brought about without exploiting the laborer ; sion or the Federal Trade Commission. it may mean price adjustments; it may mean

Would it be necessary, then, still to have a method by which the seasonal character of trade unions ?

the industry may be changed. It means the Absolutely. In fact, it would help the establishment of a machinery which will make trade union movement enormously, because a study of all the facts of industry for the it would give to the trade union movement purpose of arriving at conclusions which are information upon which it could base its fair both to the workers and to the employdemands, and at the same time prevent it ers in a competitive industry. from making demands which are unreason- Then it is even more than protecting the able. In fact, where there are wage boards— helpless worker? trade boards as they call them in England- It is more than taking care of the helpless they have aided trade unions.

worker, for it means that the Government But would this not take the control of his will concern itself as much in improving the own business out of the hands of the employer ? productivity of industry as it now concerns

I think that it would stabilize his business, itself in the improvement of the productivity for under present conditions he is a victim of of agriculture. This extension of governanarchy and chance. Outside of minima, he mental machinery means intelligent regulashould have absolute discretion and freedom tion for the purpose of stimulating initiative to negotiate with his employees and to arrange among the manufacturers and workers bea scale of prices for labor that will meet the tween a minimum and a maximum. It would needs of his business. At present, when he be the means of saving the waste of energy is forced by a labor union to make increases through strikes and other friction due to inin wages he is penalized, as I have pointed efficient methods of production. It would out, because his competitors do not meet the also provide for industry such knowledge as same conditions. From the manufacturer's will enable the industry to establish a system point of view, if he has equal conditions of of apprenticeship, by which those who get competition, he will object less to increases the minimum wage will be enabled to earn it. in standards. And if he is an honest and All the factors of industry are so interrelated humane man, he will welcome the chance to that you cannot discuss a minimum wage get rid of unscrupulous competition.

without discussing methods of manufacture Has this anything to do with Socialism ? and methods of arriving at efficiency. There

It has as much to do with Socialism as the fore such a Government board would deal Inter-State Commerce Commission has to do with all the facts of industry. with Socialism. It is a form of social regu- How would you sum up the whole matter 1 lation. There are so many forms of Social- The primitive way of settling disputes beism that I cannot answer your question. If tween employers and employees is by some you mean, Does it resemble State Socialism kind of struggle in which one side tries to of a rigid character, I say no ; for all that it enforce its will on the other. A great addoes is to provide minimum standards below vance over that method is the method of which the industrial game cannot be played. arbitration, but in most cases arbitration is Between the minima and the maxima the em simply a compromise between the demands of ployers and the workers should have absolute the two sides. The arbitrators frequently freedom of action.

know little or nothing of the real facts or conWhy doesn't this idea apply to other trades ? ditions in these industries--of costs of pro

It does. Machinery should be established duction, of industrial processes, of the state by the State and the Nation by which the idea of the competitive market, or business mancan be practically applied to as many indus- agement. The next step will be the crea tries as possible.

tion of machinery for ascertaining the facts in Should this be done purely for the protec- each industry. The machinery will be contion of the helpless worker?

stantly at work collecting and recording the This is a much bigger thing than merely a facts about the ever-changing conditions. minimum wage question. What I want is Based on these facts, standards could be deterthe application of fair intelligence to a very mined. The Government can then set a complicated question. It is not merely a minimum, not only in wages, but also in other question of wages. It may mean methods conditions, below which no one can venture

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BY WILLIAM MACDONALD

PROFESSOR OF HISTORY IN BROWN UNIVERSITY We interrupt for a single week the publication of the articles by our staff correspondent Mr. Frederick M. Davenport in order that we may give our readers at once the following article, which seems to us of pressing timeliness and of peculiar significance. This is so, not only because of the purport of the article itself, but because of the fact that Professor MacDonald is an Independent Republican who voted for Mr. Wilson as President in the campaign of 1912. Like many other men of Republican affiliations, but who are independent in political matters, he believes that the Republican party should this year nominate Mr. Roosevelt. Professor MacDonald, in reply to direct questions from the editors of The Outlook, says: “I voted for McKinley in 1896 and 1900, for Mr. Roosevelt in 1904, and for Mr. Taft in 1908. I did not follow Mr. Roosevelt in his Progressive campaign in 1912, however, but voted for Mr. Wilson. While I should still feel it to be my duty to support President Wilson to the extent of my ability in any situation that might arise in which my individual support could be construed as a citizen's obligation, I am no longer in sympathy with President Wilson's methods or policy and cannot vote for him again." Professor MacDonald has edited well-known works of American history and has himself written important books on special periods, such as “ Jacksonian Democracy” and “ From Jefferson to Lincoln.”—THE EDITORS.

HE central figure in the Presidential Wilson or a Republican. The significance of

campaign of 1916, not only until the situation for the Republicans is the sus

after the Chicago Convention, but picion, daily becoming a conviction, that it will very possibly from that time until after elec- be Wilson if it is not Roosevelt. tion day also, is Mr. Roosevelt. Once again, Mr. Roosevelt was elected in 1904, as a as so often before, he holds the center of the Republican, with a plurality of 2,545,515 stage.

votes, the largest plurality ever received by a From a party standpoint, the interest of the Presidential nominee. Four years later Mr. approaching campaign turns wholly upon the Taft, with the prestige of this overwhelming attitude of the Republicans. The Demo- Republican success, and with a gain on his crats will renominate Mr. Wilson as a matter own account of 55,000 votes over the total of course. There will also be a Socialist cast for Mr. Roosevelt in 1904, saw the candidate, and perhaps a Progressive candi- Republican plurality decline by 1.255,711. It

Laborites, Prohibitionists, and other is an open secret that in 1912 the Roosevelt small groups may likewise go through the delegates controlled the Convention, and form of making nominations. All of these would have nominated their candidate but for nominations, however, with the exception of the manipulative tactics of the presiding that of the Democrats, will be wholly negli- officer, Senator Root; and Senator Root's gible, for the reason that no one of the action sent Mr. Taft down to defeat with a nominees has the remotest chance of being loss of 4,193,952 votes in comparison with elected. The result of the election will be his vote in 1908, and made possible a vote of 4,119,507 for Mr. Roosevelt at the hands to oppose to him a candidate who is strong of the Progressives.

where Wilson is weak, courageous where The practical question for the Republicans Wilson is timid, clear and decided where now is, What will become in 1916 of the Wilson is hesitant, frank and whole-hearted more than four million votes that were given where Wilson is silent and cold, popular where to Mr. Roosevelt in 1912 ? With a popular Wilson is disliked, trusted where Wilson is vote for Mr. Wilson in 1912 of 116,085 less suspected, feared where Wilson is ignored. than the popular vote for Mr. Bryan in 1908, It is no time for picking flaws, or nursing and with a phenomenal gain of 481,080 in resentments, or resurrecting dead issues and the Socialist vote, it is clear that the over- controversies, or blinking facts. The Amerwhelming majority of the Roosevelt support ican mind is distressed, but it is not in a was drawn from the Republican ranks. mood to be trifled with. If the Republicans Which party is to get those votes in 1916 ? are to win, it can only be with a leader who If the humiliating defeat of 1912 is to be re- is nominated because he is great, not with trieved, far the larger part of the Roosevelt one who is great chiefly because he is nomvote of that year—for most practical pur- inated; a leader who can touch the imaginaposes the whole of that vote—must be recov- tion of the masses and stir personal enthusiered by the Republicans next November. asm and loyalty ; a leader who in this gravely Can the Republicans get the Roosevelt vote critical time needs no introduction anywhere, without Roosevelt ?

but who is known and respected throughout It is not necessary, for the purposes of the the country and throughout the world. present discussion, to dwell upon the short- Any catalogue of Mr. Roosevelt's virtues comings of the Wilson Administration. The which his supporters may make will, of absence of constructive legislation of a large course, be met at once by his enemies with sort, either in remedy of abuses or in further- a portentous list of his weaknesses and poance of industrial and social welfare; the ad- litical sins; which is the same thing as saying vocacy of legislation widely believed to be that Mr. Roosevelt is a strong man and an dangerous to commerce and to the National aggressive leader. As the world goes, it is revenue ; party dissension and political help- only men of mediocre caliber who never lessness in Congress; appointments, actual make enemies, or who follow scrupulously or threatened, of men notoriously unfit; let- the beaten path, or who are neutral or colorting down the bars in the civil service ; ad- less in times of crisis, or who carefully refrain ministrative slackness in the departments at from speaking out lest they should somehow Washington ; brave words and reluctant acts injure their chances ; and to men of that in diplomacy; a stubborn opposition to mili- stamp the American voter does not, as a rule, tary and naval preparedness while there was take very kindly. The nomination of a yet time, suddenly replaced by fervid insist- Presidential candidate, however, is an inence upon wholly insufficient measures for tensely practical business, and one upon defense when peril is at hand ; complacent which the winning or losing of some millions indifference to the wanton killing of Ameri- of votes depends; and a man with Mr. can citizens and the destruction of American Roosevelt's phenomenal record as a voteproperty in Mexico, joined to a shifty policy getter—not to mention at the moment any which has invited the very complications with other capabilities--is entitled to have his which the United States must now wrestle strong points as well as his weak ones carein that distracted country; and a cold aloof- fully weighed. ness which has turned the Presidential chair Suppose we marshal at once the worst into an inaccessible tower of silence, are only things that have been said of Mr. Roosevelt : the larger counts in an indictment which has his rough tongue, his desertion of the Rebrought great sections of the American peo- publicans, his attack upon Mr. Taft, his warple to a state of chagrin, distrust, and appre- fare against trusts and “big business.” his hension. Three years ago the Nation was ruthless treatment of Colombia, his preacher asking for bread; to-day it is wondering tone, his self-advertising. It is a considerawhether it is yet to receive aught but a stone. ble list, surely, and one of which his oppo

Be the indictment what it may, however, nents will try to make the most in a camthe fact remains that President Wilson will paign. Is it sufficiently weighty, however, be renominated at St. Louis, and that he will in all frankness, to offset his qualities and be re-elected unless the Republicans are able achievements in other respects and to make

1916

THE PRE-NOMINATION CAMPAIGN

89

him impossible as a Republican standard- Mr. Roosevelt stands for preparedness. bearer? Granted that he has not been free This is not the place to discuss the particular from the failings common alike to politicians kind or degree of preparedness that is and statesmen, does he nevertheless possess needed, or the merits or defects of the varithe indispensable qualification of availability ? ous measures to which the attention of Presi

As to availability, there are some pretty dent Wilson and a Democratic Congress are important things to be remembered.

at last directed. It is enough to recall the first place, Mr. Roosevelt is a protectionist. humiliating fact that after more than twenty Just what part the tariff is to play in the months of warning from the European strugapproaching campaign cannot, of course, be gle, after more than four months of Congresaccurately forecast at this time. Issues have sional debate, and with Mexico as an illustraa curious way of cropping out and of re- tion at the door, we are still unprepared. ceding, no matter how the platform is con- Never have we been in graver danger; for, structed. If the Republicans have learned literally, we know not what a day may bring nothing from recent experience of tariff-mak- forth. Mr. Roosevelt has been unceasing in ing and are to “ stand pat” on the old-line his demand for preparedness and in his critiprotective theories and methods, they will cism of the mistaken policy which, up to invite defeat, whoever is their candidate. On date, has left us well-nigh helpless; and while the other hand, the tariff has formed too his criticisms have been severe and his tone large an element in Republican policy in the often harsh, it may well be doubted whether past to be lightly disposed of now; and while that which he has said or written is harsher the partisan criticism of Democratic “ tariff or more severe than that which most Repubtinkering " need not be taken too seriously, licans, together with many of other parties, there are many influential Republicans who have thought. It was in his Presidency, too, have become convinced that tariff bargaining, that the American navy reached its highest under conditions of reciprocity, is likely to point of efficiency, and the army, although be in the future more important for the occupied mainly with the routine of peace, United States than mere tariff protection. its greatest effectiveness in personnel, spirit, Whatever the point of view, however, Mr. and practical strength. The Republican Roosevelt's record as President shows no party, by nature a party of preparedness for disposition on his part to oppose Republican the same reasons that have made it a party ideas on this important question. He is, and of administrative efficiency, has only defeat always has been, a protectionist, and he stood awaiting it if it asks for less than Mr. upon a protection platform as a Progressive Roosevelt has all along demanded, or if it candidate in 1912.

nominates a candidate who is less clear and In the second place, Mr. Roosevelt stands positive on that subject than he is known to

administrative honesty and efficiency. He began his public career in the field of Once more, Mr. Roosevelt stands for a National politics as a civil service reformer, strong foreign policy and for the respect due and he has not deserted the cause or allowed to the American name. Perhaps it is idle to his interest in it to wane. The efficiency of speculate as to what this or that man might or the executive departments at Washington could have done had he been, during the past and of the administrative service throughout twenty months, in President Wilson's place; the country was never more marked than in nevertheless, such speculation is very much the years of his Presidency. He was the of a habit in this country, and is often one of sworn enemy of incompetency as well as of the straws which show the direction of the graft. Abuses were remedied, complaints political breeze. There is a widely held were listened to, desirable reforms were insti- opinion that had Mr. Roosevelt occupied tuted. The Republican party has long boasted the Presidential chair he would at least have of its superior efficiency and of its success in insured for the United States a respect abroad giving to the country a businesslike adminis- which is now, to our chagrin, conspicuously tration. The nomination of Mr. Roosevelt lacking. He might not have been able to at a moment when great tasks of social, prevent the violation of Belgian neutrality or industrial, and commercial readjustment are the wholesale infraction of international law, teginning to loom would be an assurance but he might at least have made a protest that the boast, if he were elected, would be that would have saved American honor. On made good.

any reasonable theory of probability, there is

be.

more likelihood that a leopard would change intermeddling in other nations' affairs ? When its spots than that Mr. Roosevelt, had he he brought to a close the Russo-Japanese been President, would have confined his War, was it by threat of armed intervention, diplomatic activities chiefly to letter-writing, or by virtue of a moral force which he alone or submitted tamely to interference with among the rulers of great nations had the American commerce by either belligerent, or courage and ability to use ? Did he not give allowed foreign agitators to hatch their plots his support, and very real support too, to the on American soil, or played fast and loose youthful cause of international conciliation ? with anarchy in Mexico until forcible inter- And did he not receive the Nobel peace prize ? vention could no longer be put off, or frit- Did the American people in the years of Mr. tered away more than a year and a half, in Roosevelt's Presidency live in fear lest the the face of a world war, without doing any- Nation should become involved in war? And thing worth mentioning to strengthen the does any American who takes counsel of his Nation's defenses. Have the Republicans information and his judgment, rather than of any leader whose course, under such circum- prejudice and partisan clamor, really cherish stances as now attend us, could so confidently such apprehension about him now? Rather be predicted, or to whom the party support is it not the fact that in the period from 1901 in such a time of crisis could be given with to 1909, one of the most momentous epochs greater enthusiasm and satisfaction ?

that the United States has ever known, we On four cardinal points, then-protection, not only lived at peace, with none to molest administrative efficiency, preparedness, and us or make us afraid, but that American foreign policy, Mr. Roosevelt is in accord 'lives and American interests abroad were with the best traditions and the prevailing respected and safeguarded and the dignity sentiment of the Republican party. On each of the Nation upheld without war or parade of these points, moreover, he has already a of force; and that these things were so clear record as President or as a citizen. Are under a President who, because he was a there other more weighty reasons for rejecting soldier and knew what war meant, was inhim as a candidate?

definitely safer than one who relies upon Aside from opposition on purely personal “watchful waiting" or is “too proud to grounds and the fact that he is persona non

fight"? grata to thick-and-thin pacificists, the objection The other chief objection seems to be that most often voiced is that Mr. Roosevelt is Mr. Roosevelt is not any longer a Republi“ unsafe.” President Wilson, it is admitted, can but a Progressive, and that his nomination has shown himself of unstable mind, but, so by the Republicans would be not so much a far as Europe is concerned, the United States return on his part to his old allegiance as a is nevertheless still at peace.

Had Mr. surrender of the Republicans, body and soul, . Roosevelt been President--so runs the argu- to the Progressives. It may be taken for

ment-we should long ago have been at war granted that Mr. Roosevelt would not accept with one or more of the European bellig- a Republican nomination save upon his own erents, as well as with Mexico"; and peace, terms, and that he would insist upon dictating even at the risk of dishonor, particularly when the platform and the conduct of the campeace yields such immense financial returns, paign ; whence it is inferred that the outcome, is better than war with its horrors. If we if successful, would be a Progressive rather must go to war, let it be because we are than a Republican victory. And since many attacked, and not because the President is old-line Republicans regard the Progressives eager to have a hand in whatever is going on. as much nearer akin to Democrats or Social

It would be interesting to know upon what ists than to Republicans, the suggestion of circumstances in Mr. Roosevelt's career as Mr. Roosevelt as a candidate would have to President this imputation of inherent bellig- be rejected by the party managers even erency in international concerns is based. though a considerable number of Republicans Were Secretary Hay or Secretary Root, two preferred him against the field. of the ablest statesmen who have ever held The force of this argument depends mainly Cabinet office, hard put to it to restrain the upon two considerations : first, whether the warlike propensities of their chief? With all Progressives, whatever they once were, are his zeal for a better army and navy, was he now to be regarded as an independent party, ever militaristic ? Was his foreign policy one marked off by fundamental differences alike of brag and bluster, or was he constantly from Republicans, Democrats, and Socialists;

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