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factories; second, the doing away with the making of garments in homes where there is contagious disease and in crowded quarters; third, the reduction in the hours of labor. remember a time when people worked sixty, and sometimes seventy, hours a week. I myself as boy worked ten and twelve hours

a day. I worked from eight o'clock in the morning until six or seven at night. During the busy season fifteen or twenty years ago people worked from very early in the morning until late at night. There was no regulation of hours, and seventy hours a week was not too long for many people. This was working in an overcrowded shop, with stifling air, with operators working like mad over machines which they had to drive with their own feet. Now the foot power has been completely eliminated. The sewing-machines The sewing-machines are run by electricity, and even ironingmachines for the pressing of garments have been introduced which are being run by electricity. Through the efforts of the union and the improvement in methods of manufacture these standards have been raised.

Has this board succeeded in setting a standard not only of health but of wages?

No. A wages board has not yet been established in these industries. This is the next big step which must be made, and which has been made in the dress and waist industry through the creation of a board for the control of protocol standards.

What do you mean by protocol standards? By protocol standards I mean those standards in wages, hours, labor, sanitary conditions, and other standards affecting the working conditions, established by the agreement between the organized workers and the employers, which has been called the protocol.

There are thus two boards-one that has to do with conditions of health, and the other that has to do with the wages or other payments for labor, hours of labor, and certain conditions and methods of manufacture.

Has this second board established any wage standards at all?

This second board has just been organized. Its purpose is to gather information concerning conditions of labor, wages, and hours, which will form the basis of recommendation to the manufacturers and the organized workers regarding increases or improvements in these directions. The second object of this board is to enforce the standards of wages agreed upon between the association and the union throughout the entire industry.

There is, then, a standard of wages agreed upon?

There is a standard of wages called for in the agreement. But the employers who pay the union standards are not guaranteed that their competitors are doing the same, and frequently the good employer is penalized because an unscrupulous employer, who is not controlled or is imperfectly controlled by the union, has cheap labor.

In connection with these waist and cloak makers, we hear a great deal about the minimum wage. What is meant by that?

In these industries there are minimum weekly wages and minimum rates for piecework—that is, wages below which the manufacturer is not allowed to go, although he is not limited in paying more if he wishes to; and, in fact, he does pay the skilled worker more than the minimum.

In the waist and cloak industries there has been a minimum wage, then, established by agreement?

Minimum prices for labor have been established by agreement.

Why should we need, then, a minimum wage law?

What we need in this industry, as well as in other industries, is information concerning the business conditions of the industry as well as the needs of the workers, so as to ascertain what a proper minimum is, under competitive conditions. For example: A manufacturer in New York who is forced to pay a minimum very much higher than his competitor in the Philadelphia or Chicago market will not be able to compete very long. The other day the workers in the shops surrounding The Outlook's office went out on strike. They got an increase in minimum wages. The Board of Arbitration, consisting of Judge Julian W. Mack, Chairman, Mr. Robert Bruère, and Mr. Hamilton Holt, gave increases to the industry. Young girls, for example, over fourteen, cannot receive less than six dollars a week and when they reach sixteen they cannot receive less than eight dollars and fifty cents in certain kinds of work. Operators, examiners, cutters, and other workers were increased. If the increases which were given are very much higher than those given in Philadelphia and Chicago, for instance, then the manufacturers in these markets will make a cheaper product, and the industry may in part be driven out of the city of New York simply because the wages have been so increased here and not

1916

THE GARMENT TRADE AND THE MINIMUM WAGE

in other parts of the country that the cost of manufacture is cheaper, and reflects itself in cheaper prices. Such conditions as this cannot be completely controlled by a voluntary arrangement, and therefore we need the authority of the State and the sovereignty of the State, first, in finding out what these conditions are, and upon the basis of that knowledge a fair minimum wage enforcing it equally.

How would such a minimum wage law operate?

First, it must establish machinery for getting the facts relevant to wages, cost of living, cost of manufacture, prices of manufacture, cost of material, and any other necessary factors.

How would it do this?

This it could do through its own investigating departments of the Bureau of Labor, or through special boards established for the consideration of certain specified industries; or, better still, by co-operating with the machinery which has been established by . these voluntary agreements.

Having ascertained all these facts, what would be the next thing for the law to do?

Having ascertained the facts, then both parties to the agreement can, through the machinery established by this agreement, confer concerning the increases in wages which the workers may demand. The representatives of the public-either the arbitrators or the representatives of the Government, or the board established for the consideration of the increase in wages-will be in a better position to judge whether the demands of the workers are fair upon the basis of this study. The next thing would be to present those facts to any board of arbitration established by the agreement between the workers and the employers, or any other board established in any other way to settle any specific dispute. For instance, the board of arbitration which sat for five years in the cloak and suit industry, and for three years in the dress and waist industry, has frequently been forced to make its decisions upon very little basis in fact, but only upon the basis of advocates' contention. This has been in large measure a method of compromise between the demands of both sides. And sometimes it has been a process of benevolent guesswork. Very often boards of arbitration take leaps in the dark. If they make a mistake in business judgment by granting increases which are unfair to em

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ployers in a competitive industry, they juggle with property in ignorance. On the other hand, they may be unfair to the workers by not awarding them enough. They cannot just by pure reasoning come to a sound conclusion concerning these important matters unless they have a sense of the reality of the industry. For example: The union asked, in the cloak and suit industry, a standard of seventy-five cents an hour for an operator of average skill. This demand was granted by the Council of Conciliation appointed by the Mayor recently. We are told by the manufacturers that many of them have been unable to pay this sum, and as a result their cloaks were made under conditions which the union could not control, or in outside markets where the price was lower. Whether seventyfive cents an hour is a fair price to pay in the light of competition can be discovered only by very careful study of the facts.

The law itself, then, would not set a minimum wage?

I do not believe in having an arbitrary minimum wage. I believe in having boards to study the conditions of the various industries, and upon this study of special conditions work out a minimum.

The desirable law, then, is not so much a minimum wage law as a law for establishing boards to decide what is a fair minimum wage? Exactly.

But a moment ago you mentioned a strike of girls in the neighborhood of The Outlook's office which resulted in paying bigger wages than the concerns in Philadelphia or Chicago. How could a minimum wage board in New York deal with that!

It could not. Therefore the regulation must be wider than any State.

But does not what you say about wages apply to other things as well?

Absolutely. We are forced to take the position of National control in this as in many other industries.

How could such a control be brought about? I think chiefly at first by getting the cities and the States to co-operate with the voluntary arrangements already made between employers and employees. National manufacturing associations believing in collective agreements should deal with National unions. This would help bring about equalization of competition between various cities, and then, through co-operation with the various State Departments of Labor of the different States, bring about a basis for the development of a

Federal control, through the Federal Bureau of Labor or the Federal Industrial Commission or the Federal Trade Commission.

Would it be necessary, then, still to have trade unions?

Absolutely. In fact, it would help the trade union movement enormously, because it would give to the trade union movement information upon which it could base its demands, and at the same time prevent it from making demands which are unreasonable. In fact, where there are wage boardstrade boards as they call them in England— they have aided trade unions.

But would this not take the control of his own business out of the hands of the employer?

I think that it would stabilize his business, for under present conditions he is a victim of anarchy and chance. Outside of minima, he should have absolute discretion and freedom to negotiate with his employees and to arrange a scale of prices for labor that will meet the needs of his business. At present, when he is forced by a labor union to make increases in wages he is penalized, as I have pointed out, because his competitors do not meet the same conditions. From the manufacturer's point of view, if he has equal conditions of competition, he will object less to increases in standards. And if he is an honest and humane man, he will welcome the chance to get rid of unscrupulous competition.

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Has this anything to do with Socialism? It has as much to do with Socialism as the Inter-State Commerce Commission has to do with Socialism. It is a form of social regulation. There are so many forms of Socialism that I cannot answer your question. you mean, Does it resemble State Socialism of a rigid character, I say no; for all that it does is to provide minimum standards below which the industrial game cannot be played. Between the minima and the maxima the employers and the workers should have absolute freedom of action.

Why doesn't this idea apply to other trades? It does. Machinery should be established by the State and the Nation by which the idea can be practically applied to as many industries as possible.

Should this be done purely for the protec tion of the helpless worker?

This is a much bigger thing than merely a minimum wage question. What I want is the application of fair intelligence to a very complicated question. It is not merely a question of wages. It may mean methods

of manufacture by which efficiency is brought about without exploiting the laborer; it may mean price adjustments; it may mean a method by which the seasonal character of the industry may be changed. It means the establishment of a machinery which will make a study of all the facts of industry for the purpose of arriving at conclusions which are fair both to the workers and to the employers in a competitive industry.

Then it is even more than protecting the helpless worker?

It is more than taking care of the helpless worker, for it means that the Government will concern itself as much in improving the productivity of industry as it now concerns itself in the improvement of the productivity of agriculture. This extension of governmental machinery means intelligent regulation for the purpose of stimulating initiative among the manufacturers and workers between a minimum and a maximum. It would be the means of saving the waste of energy through strikes and other friction due to inefficient methods of production. It would also provide for industry such knowledge as will enable the industry to establish a system of apprenticeship, by which those who get the minimum wage will be enabled to earn it. All the factors of industry are so interrelated that you cannot discuss a minimum wage without discussing methods of manufacture and methods of arriving at efficiency. Therefore such a Government board would deal with all the facts of industry.

How would you sum up the whole matter? The primitive way of settling disputes between employers and employees is by some kind of struggle in which one side tries to enforce its will on the other. A great advance over that method is the method of arbitration, but in most cases arbitration is simply a compromise between the demands of the two sides. The arbitrators frequently know little or nothing of the real facts or conditions in these industries--of costs of production, of industrial processes, of the state of the competitive market, or business management. The next step will be the crea tion of machinery for ascertaining the facts in each industry. The machinery will be constantly at work collecting and recording the facts about the ever-changing conditions. Based on these facts, standards could be determined. The Government can then set a minimum, not only in wages, but also in other conditions, below which no one can venture

1916

THE PRE-NOMINATION CAMPAIGN

without incurring the penalty of the law. Under the operation of State and Federal wage boards, a commission should be automatically created whenever a dispute arises in any industry, and that commission, utilizing the facts already ascertained, will then be enabled, after hearing arguments from both

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sides, to apply the standards to the particular case in controversy with real understanding of the needs of an industry from the viewpoint of both sides. When the decision is reached, it will have the authority of neutrally gathered facts and be backed by the sovereignty of civilized law.

THE PRE-NOMINATION CAMPAIGN
WHY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY NEEDS

MR. ROOSEVELT

BY WILLIAM MACDONALD

PROFESSOR OF HISTORY IN BROWN UNIVERSITY

We interrupt for a single week the publication of the articles by our staff correspondent Mr. Frederick M. Davenport in order that we may give our readers at once the following article, which seems to us of pressing timeliness and of peculiar significance. This is so, not only because of the purport of the article itself, but because of the fact that Professor MacDonald is an Inde pendent Republican who voted for Mr. Wilson as President in the campaign of 1912. Like many other men of Republican affiliations, but who are independent in political matters, he believes that the Republican party should this year nominate Mr. Roosevelt. Professor MacDonald, in reply to direct questions from the editors of The Outlook, says: "I voted for McKinley in 1896 and 1900, for Mr. Roosevelt in 1904, and for Mr. Taft in 1908. I did not follow Mr. Roosevelt in his Progressive campaign in 1912, however, but voted for Mr. Wilson. While I should still feel it to be my duty to support President Wilson to the extent of my ability in any situation that might arise in which my individual support could be construed as a citizen's obligation, I am no longer in sympathy with President Wilson's methods or policy and cannot vote for him again." Professor MacDonald has edited well-known works of American history and has himself written important books on special periods, such as “Jacksonian Democracy” and “From Jefferson to Lincoln."-THE Editors.

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HE central figure in the Presidential campaign of 1916, not only until after the Chicago Convention, but very possibly from that time until after election day also, is Mr. Roosevelt. Once again, as so often before, he holds the center of the stage.

From a party standpoint, the interest of the approaching campaign turns wholly upon the attitude of the Republicans. The Democrats will renominate Mr. Wilson as a matter of course. There will also be a Socialist candidate, and perhaps a Progressive candidate. Laborites, Prohibitionists, and other small groups may likewise go through the form of making nominations. All of these nominations, however, with the exception of that of the Democrats, will be wholly negligible, for the reason that no one of the nominees has the remotest chance of being elected. The result of the election will be

Wilson or a Republican. The significance of the situation for the Republicans is the suspicion, daily becoming a conviction, that it will be Wilson if it is not Roosevelt.

Mr. Roosevelt was elected in 1904, as a Republican, with a plurality of 2,545,515 votes, the largest plurality ever received by a Presidential nominee. Four years later Mr. Taft, with the prestige of this overwhelming Republican success, and with a gain on his own account of 55,000 votes over the total cast for Mr. Roosevelt in 1904, saw the Republican plurality decline by 1,255,711. It is an open secret that in 1912 the Roosevelt delegates controlled the Convention, and would have nominated their candidate but for the manipulative tactics of the presiding officer, Senator Root; and Senator Root's action sent Mr. Taft down to defeat with a loss of 4,193,952 votes in comparison with his vote in 1908, and made possible a vote

of 4,119,507 for Mr. Roosevelt at the hands of the Progressives.

The practical question for the Republicans now is, What will become in 1916 of the more than four million votes that were given to Mr. Roosevelt in 1912? With a popular vote for Mr. Wilson in 1912 of 116,085 less than the popular vote for Mr. Bryan in 1908, and with a phenomenal gain of 481,080 in the Socialist vote, it is clear that the overwhelming majority of the Roosevelt support was drawn from the Republican ranks. Which party is to get those votes in 1916 ? If the humiliating defeat of 1912 is to be retrieved, far the larger part of the Roosevelt vote of that year-for most practical purposes the whole of that vote-must be recovered by the Republicans next November. Can the Republicans get the Roosevelt vote without Roosevelt ?

It is not necessary, for the purposes of the present discussion, to dwell upon the shortcomings of the Wilson Administration. The absence of constructive legislation of a large sort, either in remedy of abuses or in furtherance of industrial and social welfare; the advocacy of legislation widely believed to be dangerous to commerce and to the National revenue; party dissension and political helplessness in Congress; appointments, actual or threatened, of men notoriously unfit; letting down the bars in the civil service; administrative slackness in the departments at Washington; brave words and reluctant acts in diplomacy; a stubborn opposition to military and naval preparedness while there was yet time, suddenly replaced by fervid insistence upon wholly insufficient measures for defense when peril is at hand; complacent indifference to the wanton killing of American citizens and the destruction of American property in Mexico, joined to a shifty policy. which has invited the very complications with which the United States must now wrestle in that distracted country; and a cold aloofness which has turned the Presidential chair into an inaccessible tower of silence, are only the larger counts in an indictment which has brought great sections of the American people to a state of chagrin, distrust, and apprehension. Three years ago the Nation was asking for bread; to-day it is wondering whether it is yet to receive aught but a stone.

Be the indictment what it may, however, the fact remains that President Wilson will be renominated at St. Louis, and that he will be re-elected unless the Republicans are able

to oppose to him a candidate who is strong where Wilson is weak, courageous where Wilson is timid, clear and decided where Wilson is hesitant, frank and whole-hearted where Wilson is silent and cold, popular where Wilson is disliked, trusted where Wilson is suspected, feared where Wilson is ignored. It is no time for picking flaws, or nursing resentments, or resurrecting dead issues and controversies, or blinking facts. The American mind is distressed, but it is not in a mood to be trifled with. If the Republicans are to win, it can only be with a leader who is nominated because he is great, not with one who is great chiefly because he is nominated; a leader who can touch the imagination of the masses and stir personal enthusiasm and loyalty; a leader who in this gravely critical time needs no introduction anywhere, but who is known and respected throughout the country and throughout the world.

Any catalogue of Mr. Roosevelt's virtues which his supporters may make will, of course, be met at once by his enemies with a portentous list of his weaknesses and political sins; which is the same thing as saying that Mr. Roosevelt is a strong man and an aggressive leader. As the world goes, it is only men of mediocre caliber who never make enemies, or who follow scrupulously. the beaten path, or who are neutral or colorless in times of crisis, or who carefully refrain from speaking out lest they should somehow injure their chances; and to men of that stamp the American voter does not, as a rule, take very kindly. The nomination of a Presidential candidate, however, is an intensely practical business, and one upon which the winning or losing of some millions of votes depends; and a man with Mr. Roosevelt's phenomenal record as a votegetter-not to mention at the moment any other capabilities--is entitled to have his strong points as well as his weak ones carefully weighed.

Suppose we marshal at once the worst things that have been said of Mr. Roosevelt : his rough tongue, his desertion of the Republicans, his attack upon Mr. Taft, his warfare against trusts and "big business." his ruthless treatment of Colombia, his preacher tone, his self-advertising. It is a considerable list, surely, and one of which his opponents will try to make the most in a campaign. Is it sufficiently weighty, however, in all frankness, to offset his qualities and achievements in other respects and to make

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