I

NSTEAD of writing an original article for this issue of The Outlook, I have asked the editors to allow me to publish something that seems to me far more important and informing than anything that I could say.

It is the composite opinion of 1,629 American business men in regard to American business as affected by the political and economic conditions by which we are now, or may shortly be, confronted at home and abroad.

It is derived from an elaborate investigation made for their own and their clients' guidance by Harris, Winthrop & Co., a wellknown firm of investment bankers having offices in both New York and Chicago.

The complete report and the letters which accompany it comprise a pamphlet of some sixty pages, advance proofs of which I have been permitted to read and which will probably be published about the same time as this issue of The Outlook.

As such documents do not generally circulate outside the comparatively limited circle. of those to whom they are sent for financial reasons, and as this one seems to have exceptional public interest just now, I feel that I am doing a real service to the readers of The Outlook in putting it at their disposal. As it is difficult, if not impossible, to improve upon the bankers' summary of their own report and the conclusions to which it points, I quote it in full. I hope those who read it will agree with me as to its practical value to business men in the present somewhat perplexing situation. This is the report:

In January, 1915, we made an investigation into business conditions in the United States, the result of which we published in a pamphlet dealing with "The Present and Future of American Business."

This pamphlet came to have a wide circulation, and many of our friends have been good enough to say that it was at the time an important influence in re-establishing the confidence of the people of this country in themselves and the commercial future of the Nation.

Our previous inquiry was addressed to about two thousand men of affairs throughout the United States. and was sent out January 21, 1915. At that time many were in doubt whether this country could prosper while Europe was involved in a war which had then been in progress only five months.

The replies which we received and the letters that we were permitted to publish indicated the general individuality of confidence in the future of each respondent's business that has since been fused in the widespread commercial prosperity that we are now enjoying.

Such service as we may have rendered was in making faith infectious and encouraging a justifiable optimism which most people felt but hesitated to express.

We are now again confronted by a situation that engenders doubt. There are many who fear that we shall have a business recession in the United States with the advent of peace in Europe.

This fear is due to the belief that our present prosperity is artificial and abnormal in that it is the result of the war-induced demand for our products and the protection to our industry which the present military preoccupation of Europe provides.

With the object of ascertaining whether this apprehension was justified by the intrinsic facts, we submitted some seventeen questions to about forty-five hundred men of affairs throughout the United States, including all those who had answered our previous inquiry. Our investigation included every State, the number of business men addressed in each State being proportioned to its population.

[The questions referred to will be found on the accompanying double-page table.]

Those replying were asked to cross out the answers least accurately describing the conditions inquired about, and to amplify their views by writing us at greater length if convenient.

In the selection of those whose opinions we have thus sought to obtain, we have included but few bankers and have omitted

statement:

The aggregate of our foreign trade, including both imports and exports, is about five and one-half billions. Our domestic commerce is competently estimated at about one hundred billions. The purchasing power of our population is greater than that of any other people in the world. Economically, we are self-contained. If the balance between domestic production and consumption is fairly well preserved, and we do not unnecessarily alarm ourselves over conditions that affect us but remotely, our progress ought to be undisturbed.

We have received in all some 1,629 replies, which we have summarized in tabular form, according to geographical districts. [This summary will be found on pages 226 and 227 of The Outlook.]

The summary speaks for itself and requires but little explanatory comment. Of those answering the first question, about one-half feel that their business will be directly affected by peace in Europe, while the other half look for undiminished activity.

It is only proper to explain that those who feel apprehensive as to the effect of peace in Europe upon American business activity are engaged, for the most part, in the metal or munition industries or in the manufacture of articles that were imported before the war. Thus, a Connecticut manufacturer of clocks says that he fears that he will not be able to compete with German-made clocks when the war is over and those who are interested in the manufacture and production of sugar in Louisiana, Utah, and Colorado express a

225

The answers to Question 2, in regard to the effect of higher prices upon the consumption of goods, are most reassuring. Nearly every one agrees that the purchasing power of the country has been greatly increased, that people are able to buy more and better goods, and there is but little, if any, complaint as to the effect of high prices upon consumption. In fact, one New England manufacturer goes so far as to say that instead of buying a poorer quality of goods at the same prices the demand is running constantly in the direction of better goods even at higher prices.

The answers to Question 3, with regard to the unemployment of labor, are most reassuring. The unemployment reported is, for the most part, localized either on the Pacific Coast or in the Southern States, where, as many of our correspondents state, the higher wages paid have really had the effect of diminishing the industry of the Negro.

The answers to Question 4 indicate a somewhat widespread desire for higher wages, but most of our correspondents express themselves philosophically with regard to the situation, and realize that it is entirely natural that the wage-earner should desire to share in the widespread prosperity of which he hears so much.

The response to Question 5 is a corollary of that made to Question 4, and is, if anything, more reassuring. The labor unrest is apparently confined to a few classes, including the railroad men and the workers in some highly specialized staple industries.

The unanimity of opinion with regard to the operation of the Federal Reserve Law is remarkable, and about the only dissatisfaction expressed comes from the Rocky Mountam States and the Pacific Northwest, in which sections loans running for longer periods than the Federal Reserve Law permits are

This is the total number of persons replying to one or more questions. Few of those answering made replies to all questions, which explains the discrepancy between the totals of the answers to each question and the number of persons answering at least one question.