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unparalleled in the annals of comOUR NILOMETER.

merce. The increase of our national Year. Exp. TOTAL. Imp. wealth arises in the main from three 1863 146 395,470,700 249

different sources. It arises (1) from 1862 124

an increase in the produce of the 349,709,200 2253

soil and the rocks (of grain, animals, 1861 125 342,600,200 2173

weaving materials, and fruits, and 1860 136 346,422,100 2105 of coal, iron, and other metals), or 1859 130 309,593,800 179

from a diminution in the cost of

production thereof ; (2) from an 1858 1164 281,192,500 1649

increase in the amount of goods 1857 122 309,910,500 188

which we manufacture and export, 1856 116 288,371,100 1721 or in a diminished cost in the 1855 954 239,230,900 1439

manufacture of them; and (3) 1854 97 249,573,700 152

from a profitable investment of

our spare capital in the construc1853 99257,210,300 158*

tion of railways and suchlike en1852 78 218,692,300 140 terprises abroad. The' Economist' 1851 74 216,745,300 142 reckons that our annual savings 1850 71$ 200,502,700 129

amount to £130,000,000, and the

lowest computation is £80,000,000. 1849634 199,741,400 136

It is impossible to conjecture the 1848 53 173,086,500 120 total income of the country; but 1847 59 175,744,300 117 the contribution made to it by the 1846 573 155,417,100 97

profits on our foreign trade are

rapidly on the increase. It is true, 1845 60 173,636,400 113

the returns of our export trade do 1844 58. 155,540,900 97 not indicate with perfect accuracy 1843 52 142,482,780 90 the amount of profits arising from 1842 477 131,182,200 84

it. There may be over-production,

causing a glut in the foreign mar1841 513

83 133,404,100

kets, and consequently a fall of 1840 51} 138,085,000 86

prices, and less profit to our ex

porting merchants. Such was the This year our exports are likely case in 1860, but, by good-luck, it to amount to 160 millions sterling, was quickly righted by the sudden and our imports to 280. Between dearth of cotton goods which fol1839 and 1849 our trade increased lowed. It is also to be noted, that rather more than 25 per cent; but during the last two and a half years, in the next ten years, aided by the the profits of our exporting manugold-discoveries, it increased 100 facturers have not been in the same per cent. During the last twenty- proportion to the value of goods five years our trade has trebled in exported as formerly. The great inamount, the exports having risen crease in the cost of the raw materifrom 52 millions to 160 millions, als must be taken into account. It and our imports from 86 millions is only upon the manufacture of to about 280. So rapid an increase is these materials that we derive a

* Previous to 1854, the official returns of the value of our Imports are of no use as showing their real value ; for the scale of prices by which the official value was determined was fixed so far back as 1698, and has long ceased to represent the true value of the articles. But the official value serves to show the fluctuations in quantity. And as for several years after 1854, both the “official" and the “ real " value of the Imports were published, we are enabled to observe the difference between these (the real value being about 2-7ths greater than the official) ; and by applying this ratio to the returns for the fourteen years previous to 1854, we have presented in the prefixed table) our Imports for these years at their real value, or at least at an approximation to it sufficiently correct for our purpose.

profit ; and as the declared value bacon, butter, cheese, and rice; the of our exports includes the cost of other half of what may be called the raw material, as well as the cost luxuries—sugar, tea, coffee, wine and profit of manufacture, it is ob- and spirits, tobacco and fruit. The vious that when the raw material remaining portion of our imports rises in price, the proportion of our consists of wood, for house and ship profit to the total value of the goods building and furniture, manufacexported will be reduced. Cotton tured articles of dress, &c. We imis now fully treble the price it was port twice as much cotton as corn, in 1860; so that, although the value and twice as much corn as wool. of exported cotton goods last year Next, as to Exports. Of the 146! was only 10 per cent less than in millions' worth of goods which we 1860, the diminution in the profits sold to other countries last year, of our manufacturers will greatly fully two-thirds (100 millions) conexceed this proportion. The quan- sisted of articles manufactured by tity of the goods exported is a bet us out of foreign materials—the ter criterion of the profits of our cotton goods alone amounting in manufacturers than the value of value to 47 millions; and less than the goods,—the value being largely one-third of materials of our own affected by fluctuations in the cost production (raw or manufactured), of the raw material. It is the chiefly metals and coal. Cotton quantity of their manufacture (in goods form the largest portion of our other words, the amount of work exports, and next to them metals which they get to do) that chiefly and metal goods,—the former conregulates the profits of the mill- stituting one-third, and the latter owners; and, we need hardly say, it one-fourth, of the whole of our exis likewise the quantity of our manu- ports. We export twice as much factures which indicates the amount cotton as woollen goods, and twice of employment furnished to our peo- as much woollen as linen. The ple. Although the value of cot- total value of the metals and metal ton exports this year promises even goods exported last year was 33 milto exceed that of 1860, neither the lions, but we cannot claim all this profits of our manufacturers, nor as the produce of our own materials, the amount of employment for our seeing that we imported four miloperatives, will be nearly so great lions' worth of metals (chiefly copas they were four years ago.

per) from other countries. It is Let us analyse the Board of Trade also to be observed that while we returns, and show in detail of what import about 90 millions' worth of our traffic with foreign countries cotton, wool, silk, flax, hemp, and consists. The Imports are what we hides, we only export articles manubuy,--the Exports are what we sell. factured from these materials to an Of the 249 millions' worth of goods equal value : and as the value of which we imported last year, two the manufactured article may (even fifths (103 millions) consisted of with the present high prices of the materials for our manufactures : of raw material) be stated at almost which amount fully one-half con- double that of the raw material, sisted of cotton, and rather less than we may infer that nearly one-half one-half of wool, silk, flax and of these imports are consumed in hemp, hides, oil and tallow, metals, the manufacture of clothing for indigo, and saltpetre. The other our own people. If this be correct, great branch of our imports consists about 40 millions' worth of the of food and stimulants, or luxuries, textile fabrics imported are refor the subsistence of our people, quired by us for clothing. Thus, and forms nearly one-third (75 mil- in addition to the produce of our lions) of our whole imports. Of own country, we import 75 milthis amount one-half consists of the lions' worth of food, and 40 millions' necessaries of life-grain and flour, worth of the raw materials of cloth

ing, besides nearly 20 millions' worth ther, the favourable or unfavourof other goods, consisting of articles able nature of the season, deterof dress and for household use, mines whether our harvest is a and wood for building and furni- good or bad one; and the differture :-in all, 135 millions' worth ence in value between a very good of foreign goods are consumed by and a very bad harvest is at least us annually, simply in maintaining twenty millions sterling. In other our present highly comfortable ex- words, in a very bad year we have istence. *

to buy of our neighbours twenty The two largest items in our millions more corn than when our imports-namely, cotton and corn harvest is decidedly good. This

are also the most variable, alike makes an enormous difference in as regards quantity and price. The the national balance-sheet. The variations of the one are due to outlay of the farmer is the same in natural, and of the other to politi- a bad year as in a good one; the cal causes. The state of the wea- expenses of cultivation are a fixed

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Rice, .

Tea, .

Wine,

* The following is a list of the chief articles imported and exported by us in 1863, arranged under descriptive heads :IMPORTS.

EXPORTS. For Food

Manufactured from Foreign MeliriulCorn & Flour, £26,000,000

Cotton Goods of Bacon, Butter,

all kinds, £47,400,000 8.800.000

Woollen do., 21,000,000 1,866,000

Linen do., 9,000,000 Sugar, 12,367,000

Metals, (say) 8,100,000 10,666,000

Haberdashery, 4,360,000 Coffee, 4,155,000

Apparel & Slops, 2,800,000 4,500,000

Silk do., 3,000,000 Spirits, . 1,700,000

Leather do., 2,230,000 Tobacco, . 3,000,000

Jute do., 400,000 Fruit, 1,562,000

Hats,

440,000 - £74,616,000 Furniture, . 300,000 For Household Use

Gunpowder, 460,000 Oil and Tallow,

Sugar, refined, 500,000 £4,000,000

-- £99,990,000 Paper, . . 342,000

4,342,000 of our own MaterialsArticles of Dress

Iron and other Broadstuffs,

Metals, CutRibbons, &c., £5,600,000 5,600,000 lery, MaFor Building and Furniture

chinery, &c., £25,000,000 Wood, . . . . 10,760,000 Coal, . . 3,700,000 For Manufactures

Earthenware, 1,334,000 Cotton, . $57,300,000

Soda,

867,000 13,900,000

Glass,

750,000 9,370,000

Soap,

250,000 Flax and Hemp, 6,150,000

Beer,

1,776,000 Metals, . 4,000,000

454,000 Hides, . 2,780,000

Stationery and Indigo, . 2,400,000

Paper, .. 900,000 Oil and Tallow,

Books,

457,000 (say) . 2,500,000

Bags,

550,000 Seeds, Flax and

36,033,000 Linseed, 3,370,000 Saltpetre,. 1,100,000

£136,028,000 - 102,870,000 | Articles not included in For the Farm

this Classification, . 10,461,768 Guano, . £2,660,000 Oilseed Cake, 660,000

£140, 189,768 3,320,000

201,508,000 Articles not included, . 47, 474,942

Total, £248,982,942 VOL. XCVI.-NO. DLXXXVIII.

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charge, but the return depends on became suddenly very scarce and the skies and the weather. A fine dear; and a great alteration took summer is worth twenty millions place in the channels of commerce. in hard cash to this country, besides The old cotton fields being blocked the many other less direct benefits up, new areas of cultivation were which it brings. Father Sol is a opened. Instead of drawing our very potent deity, whose favours supplies from, and sending our we cannot afford to slight. His money to, the West, we have been rays are a veritable shower of gold. drawing our cotton from, and sendHe is fickle, it is true, though not ing our money to, the East. India, quite so fickle as of yore; and we Egypt, and Turkey are now fertil. may hope for some slight improve- ised by the golden stream which ment still, when by draining and previously poured into the United planting or clearing we have ren- States. We need not speak of the dered our Isles a more pleasant spot manner in which the great calamity for him to look upon. Of late of the cotton famine has been borne years the variations in the amount by this country. We need not of corn imported have been unusu- describe the admirable patience of ally great. In 1859 the amount the suffering operatives, nor the imported was not quite £18,000,000; magnificent charity displayed by in the two following years it rose the nation at large on their behalf. to 31} and 344 millions ; in 1862 But it may truly be said that the to 371 millions, more than double manner in which the calamity has what it was in '59; last year it was been met and surmounted has as£26,000,000, and this year it pro- tonished even ourselves. A branch mises to be as much.

of industry which employs half-aThe variations in the import of million of operatives, and whose cotton during the same years have products constitute one-third of our been still more remarkable. In- export trade, was suddenly paradeed the changes connected with lysed; yet the general prosperity the late cotton crisis are the most of the country hardly experienced astounding of their kind that could a check, and already our export well be imagined. A civil war in trade is rushing ahead again at its America suddenly sealed up the former rate of increase. Let any region from which we derived five- one study the following brief stasixths of our supply of cotton; by tistics of our cotton trade during far the most important branch of the last four years, and he will disour manufacturing industry was cern how vast have been the changes smitten with paralysis ; a large produced by the blockade of the portion of the clothing of mankind American ports :

1860. 1861. 1862. 1863. Quantity imported, cwts., 12,419,096 11,223,078 4,678,333 5,973,422 Price,

£35,756,889 £38,453,398 £31,093,045 £56,277,953 From United States, £30,069,306 £26,570,399 £1,221,277 £644,138 From other countries, 5,687,583 12,082,999 29,871,768 55,633,815

The startling change in the chan- the 5} which it sent in 1860. Annels of commerce is here visible at other change which is strikingly a glance. In 1860, the United shown in the above figures is that States sent us five-sixths of our of price. Although the quantity of supply of cotton, and now they cotton imported fell from 12} milsend us next to none-only one- lion cwts. in 1860 to only 4 in 1862, sixtieth of their former amount. the price which we paid for cotton On the other hand, the rest of the in the latter year was almost as world has increased its rate of sup- great as in the former. And last ply tenfold-sending us 554 mil. year, although the quantityimported lions worth of cotton, in place of was less than one-half what we imported in 1860, we paid upwards nary times. An amount of proof one-half more for it! So enor- duction which may be healthy when mous has been the increase in the prices are low, becomes altogether price of cotton, caused by the dearth excessive if carried on when prices on the one hand, and on the other are high. In 1860-61 the glut was by the general prosperity of the caused by cotton goods being too nations, which seems* to admit of plentiful ; but, let it be rememtheir buying cotton clothing freely, bered, a similar glut may be proeven at unusually high prices. In duced simply from the goods being truth, it must be allowed that some too dear. In 1860-61, the quantity circumstances connected with the of goods manufactured was greater late cotton crisis have sufficed great than people required, -now, we fear, ly to moderate its bad effects. In the price of the goods is greater than 1860 and beginning of '61,the South- our customers at large can afford to ern States, seeing a blockade ap- pay. The proper remedy for this, proaching, hurried up every bale of we think, ought to be sought not cotton which they had on hand; this in a diminution of production, but enormous amount was as speedily in a determined stand on the part worked up by our manufacturers; of the manufacturers against the and the consequence was, that a present exorbitant prices charged great glut ensued in the markets of for raw cotton, which are quite unthe world. In ordinary circumstan- justified by the real requirements ces this glut would have produced and prospects of the trade. a severe crisis in our cotton trade, Let us now see the kind of proand extensive failures would cer- duce which each country sends us, tainly have occurred. But, as events and the commodities which each turned out, the over-production of takes from us. China sends raw silk 1860 proved a fortunate thing for and tea; India sends cotton, indigo, our manufactures; fora considerable and rice. We get our spices from the portion of the goods manufactured Philippine Islands, and almost all at low prices in that year, after- our coffee from Ceylon. We get a wards sold at very high prices in portion of our cotton from Egypt; 1862-63. The cotton trade is still in hides chiefly from the Pampas of a transition state, and fresh changes Buenos Ayres; wool chiefly from will assuredly take place as soon as Australia and the Cape; wood from peace is re-established in the United the northern countries of America States; but these changes will be and Europe; flax and tallow from on the side of plenty; and however Russia; corn chiefly from the United injurious they may perhaps be to States and Russia ; and the precious India and the other cotton fields metals from Australia, California, recently opened, they cannot fail Mexico, and the Andes of Peru. to be highly advantageous to this Of our exports, we send beer to country. This at least ought to India and Australia; coal to many be the result. But it behoves our places to supply coaling-stations for manufacturers to bear in mind that steam-vessels, but chiefly to France. a comparatively small amount of We send cotton-yarn for manufacproduction when prices are at their ture to India, Holland, and Gerpresent exorbitant height will pro- many ; and cotton piece-goods to duce a glut as certainly as a much India and China, Turkey, Egypt, larger production will do in ordi- the United States, and Brazil. Our

* We say " seems," because the Eastern markets are still heavy; and although the old cheap stocks of 1860-61 have been cleared off, we think it doubtful how far the new and dear stocks will be taken into general consumption.

+ The exports of cotton goods from this country during the last seven years have been, in round numbers, as follows: I 1857. 1858. 1859 1860 1861. 1862 1863.

£39,000,000 £43,000,000 £48,000,000 £51,960,000 £46,600,000 £36,134,000 £47,000,000.

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