Francis Joseph to be relieved of his post, and only remained to carry out a policy distasteful to him out of loyalty to his Imperial master. He strove up to the last for a pacific issue, and he announced in London and Paris on July 31 that he would consent to submit to mediation the points in the Note to Serbia which seemed incompatible with the maintenance of Serbian independence,' but the matter had by that time passed into the hands of Germany and the Austro-Hungarian military leaders and could not be pursued diplomatically any further. The policy initiated by the late Count Aehrenthal in 1908, the disastrous consequences of which Count Berchtold had done his best to minimise, was now again predominant at the Hofburg, and threatened to lead Austria-Hungary to her ruin.

War was declared against Russia, France, and England, on August 6, and the Austrian troops marched across the Russian frontier, which had been left unguarded, on August 7. The AustroHungarian Army was well organised and equipped, and though composed of men of several different nationalities, showed a unity of action and a rigid discipline not surpassed by that of its German ally. The Polish legion, numbering 20,000 men, many from Russian Poland, and equipped out of a fund raised by private subscription among the Poles of Galicia, greatly distinguished itself by its headlong valour and the high military qualities of its officers. Austria-Hungary was a most efficient ally for Germany, but the task assigned to her of invading Serbia, defending her own territories against the overwhelming forces of Russia, and at the same time assisting the Germans in their defence of East Prussia, was beyond her strength. This was the cause of her failures in Serbia; she crossed the frontier at Shabatz on August 13, after having bombarded Belgrade, but the necessity of massing her troops in Galicia to resist the Russian invasion prevented her from sending sufficient reinforcements to the army of 15,000 men with which she had occupied Shabatz, and she announced on August 23 that as she was "obliged to gather all her forces for the principal struggle in the north-east," her attack upon Serbia was to be regarded "as a punitive expedition and not as a definite war." The campaign which followed (p. 360) was disastrous to the Austro-Hungarian arms; three attempts were made to invade Serbian territory, and in the third, further troops having been brought up from Hungary, they succeeded in capturing Belgrade, but a fortnight after the Serbians re-captured their capital and drove the Austro-Hungarians in disorder from the country (p. 361). Montenegro having joined Serbia in declaring war upon Austria her coasts were blockaded on August 12 by the Austro-Hungarian Fleet and the Montenegrin fortress of Lowczen, opposite Cattaro, was bombarded with little effect. The Montenegrins and Serbians

1 Blue Book, No. 161.

repeatedly attempted to invade Bosnia, but did not succeed in reaching Sarajevo, the capital, being on each occasion beaten back by the Austrians.

The capture of Lemberg by the Russians and the AustroHungarian disasters in Serbia were a great blow to Austrian prestige, and much discontent was expressed at Vienna because Germany had apparently neglected the interests of her ally in her anxiety to protect Prussian territory against Russia. Repeated negotiations took place on the subject between the two Governments, and Count Tisza, the Hungarian Premier, was sent on a mission to the German headquarters, the result of which was that numerous German troops were sent to assist in a fresh expedition against Serbia.

War was declared against Belgium on August 27, and a treaty of arbitration with Switzerland was concluded on September 2.

CHAPTER III.

RUSSIA, TURKEY, AND THE MINOR STATES OF SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE.

I. RUSSIA.

WHATEVER may be the verdict of history as to the Power responsible for plunging Europe into war, it would not have taken place if Russia had not supported Serbia, for Serbia would have accepted the whole of Austria-Hungary's demands if she had not been assured of Russian active intervention in her behalf. Russia, with the magnanimity of a great people, was not prepared to stand idly by and witness the wanton attack of Austria upon a weaker state, which had already offered ample reparation for any offence for which she could be held responsible. The attack made on Serbia by Austria-Hungary was, however, regarded by the party under the Grand Duke Nicholas as an imperative call to action, even though the Army was not quite ready; but the Government made every effort to arrive at a pacific solution, and it was not until the equivocal attitude of Germany made the situation menacing that the Tsar, wavering between his love of peace and internal reform on the one hand, and the just outcry of the Nationalists and the "Orthodox Church on the other, was at length persuaded to take the side which was sure to be the most popular, at least so long as success should crown the Russian arms. It was not, strictly speaking, a war "between Slav and Teuton," for many of the Slavs outside the Russian Empire declared themselves against Russia, and fought on the side of her enemies. The enemies of "the

Teuton" among the Slavs, apart from Serbia and Montenegro, were only the Russians; the Poles, the Czechs, the Croats, and even the Slovaks and Slovenes, were on the side of AustriaHungary. There were some mutinies of Czech and Croat regiments, which were due to the racial hostility of the Czechs to the Germans and the Croats to the Hungarians (A.R., 1912, p. 337; 1913, p. 328). The "Orthodox" clergy in Russia regarded the war as a sort of crusade against Catholicism; but their agitation met with little success among the Austrian Slavs except in some districts of Galicia and Hungary inhabited by Ruthenians of the United Greek Church (p. 327), many of whom were shot during the war for having given the Russians information of the movements of the Austro-Hungarian Army. The Ruthenians of the "Orthodox" Church, on the other hand, who inhabit the province of the Ukraine in Russia, had started a separatist movement at Kieff in March in favour of union with Austria.

The most important event of the earlier part of the year was the retirement on February 11 from the post of Premier and Minister of Finance of M. Kokovtsoff, under whose administration Russia had attained to unprecedented welfare and a greater political stability than it had enjoyed for many years. His retirement was believed to have been brought about by the intrigues and disloyalty of his colleagues-a frequent cause of the fall of Ministers and other high functionaries in the Empire, and also by his having insisted, in opposition to the Ministry of Agriculture, M. Krivoshein, on the maintenance of the brandy monopoly as the safest and most productive source of the Imperial revenue. The new Premier was M. Goremykin, a reactionary bureaucrat who held the same post at the time of the first Duma (A.R., 1906, p. 319), and M. Bark, an eminent banker and a personal friend of M. Krivoshein, was appointed Minister of Finance. In a rescript addressed to the new Minister the Tsar directed him to carry out a policy of "radical reforms in the financial administration of the State and the economic life of the country," as "it is inadmissible to permit the favourable financial position of the State to depend on the destruction" (owing to the national vice of drunkenness) "of the moral and economic strength of the great multitude of Russian citizens, and it is therefore urgent that financial policy should be conducted on the principle of obtaining revenue, not from the sale of spirituous liquors, but from the produce of the inexhaustible wealth of the country and of the labour of the people." The Council of the Empire at the same time adopted a series of extremely drastic provisions in favour of temperance contained in a bill passed by the Duma, at the instigation of the peasant deputies, giving powers of local option to all communes, townships, and villages by a simple majority, with the right either of completely prohibiting the sale of liquor or restricting it to specified shops to be opened on certain days or at

certain hours; women being allowed to vote on these matters. Count Witte, who with M. Kokovtsoff, had been the founder of the brandy monopoly, now joined the opposition to it, declaring that he had made "a mistake which was leading Russia to her ruin." According to his estimate, the total revenue derived from the monopoly was about 100,000,000l. and had been increasing every year since it was established. The first step towards temperance reform was taken on March 26, when an order was issued to suspend the sale of spirits at all railway stations; it was also announced that the penalties on illicit trading in spirits would be increased, that the people would be taught the advantages of temperance in the churches and schools, and that the plea of extenuating circumstances would not be admitted in the case of crimes committed under the influence of drink. The outbreak of the war in August gave the movement a new impetus; the Government shops for the sale of spirits were nearly all closed, and it was announced by the Tsar in October that they would not be opened again. The result of this measure was not only an enormous increase of the efficiency of the troops, but of the wealth of the peasantry, which instead of being dissipated in drink was employed in agricultural improvements and a great increase of their investments in savings banks. A further result of the interest taken by the Tsar in the moral and physical welfare of his people was the creation of a "Department of Physical Culture," for the promotion of out-door sports, and during the war the sale of spirits was strictly forbidden in all the Galician towns occupied by the Russians; the keeper of a restaurant at Lemberg was fined 2,000 crowns (831. 6s. 8d.) for having sold a customer a glass of cognac. The chief difficulty in the adoption of the proposed reforms was that which had hampered the Tsar's intentions since the issue of the October manifesto of 1905 (A.R., 1905, p. 319), namely the want of harmonious co-operation between the Ministry and the Legislature on the one hand, and the members themselves of the Ministry on the other. The new Premier, M. Goremykin, was appointed by the Tsar without a Ministerial portfolio, apparently with the object of placing him above departmental rivalries, and he was directed by an Imperial Rescript on March 20 "to work in harmony with the Legislature." Cooperation with the Duma was attempted by conferences between the Premier and its leading members, the intention being, if it should prove impossible to secure a majority for the proposed reforms, to hold a general election. The first of these conferences held in the Duma did not relate to internal reforms, however, but to a proposal made by the Government to increase the peace effectives of the Army by 460,000 men, bringing up the total to 1,700,000, at an extra cost of 50,000,000l. spread over three years. This was the Russian answer to the increase of the German Army in 1913 (A.R., 1913, p. 307), and to an anti

Y

Russian campaign in the German and Austro-Hungarian Press, and all the Russian party leaders, except the Socialists, sanctioned the proposal. It was further determined, with the consent of the Duma, that the service of time-expired men should be prolonged for three months after the legal limit, which brought up the peace effective at once to almost the number fixed above.

The Russian Foreign Minister, M. Sazonoff, made a remarkable statement on the subject to a representative of the Hungarian Journal Az Est. He said that he could not understand the reason of the excitement in Germany and Austria-Hungary with regard to Russia; tension certainly did exist between the monarchy and Russia in the previous year, but the relations between the two countries were now "excellent." The increase of armaments, he continued, was initiated by Germany, whose initiative had reacted on France, and led to an increase of the peace strength of AustriaHungary; it was therefore natural that Russia should have taken steps in the same direction. With a birth rate of 2,500,000 she could allow herself "the luxury" of an increase in the peace footing of her Army. A "test mobilisation" of about 500,000 reservists was begun on April 15, and in June the Duma approved of an extraordinary credit of 10,000,000l. for the construction of warships for the Black Sea Fleet, to be spent on one 27,000-ton Dreadnought, two 7,500-ton cruisers, eight torpedo boats and six submarines, all to be built at Nikolaieff and commissioned not later than the spring of 1917. The Minister of Finance at the same time stated that Russia would have to spend 752,000,000l. in the next five years for the Army and Navy.

On April 2 the Imperial assent was given to a bill providing that married women, separated from their husbands, should enjoy full liberty of movement and enjoyment of property, even if minors, and that the courts shall have no power to order restitution of conjugal rights; cruelty to the children, rudeness, violence, dishonesty immorality, or dangerous or loathsome illness to be sufficient cause for separation, and the husband to provide alimony, the care of the children being awarded to the injured party.

The report of the Budget Committee of the Duma on the Budget for 1914 was issued on April 6. It fixed the expenditure at 358,032,6097., or nearly 33,000,000l. more than in 1913, and the revenue at 361,265,9167., or 36,200,000l. more than in 1913, and proposed that the surplus of 3,233,1097. should be devoted to the building of ways of communication, also that as the temperance campaign was likely to diminish the revenue, fresh taxes should be introduced. The Opposition groups took advantage of the debate on the Budget to protest against the intended prosecution of one of their leaders, M. Tcheidze, for propagating Republican ideas. Hereupon, on the proposal of the President, the Duma voted the suspension for a fortnight of fifteen Socialists, including M. Tcheidze, who were removed by the Serjeant-at-Arms and the