TABLE II-A.-Electric energy output, 1948 through 1954, millions of kilowatt-hours [Data for 1952 and beyond are based upon scheduled increases in capability] I. Northeast. II. East Central 3. III. Southeast 3. East division. TABLE II-B.-Annual load factor, 1948 through 1954, percent 3 1948 and 1949 data for these regions are not directly comparable with the data for 1950 and beyond due to changes in regional classification of certain electric power systems, effective with the Ninth Semiannual Survey. 1 Approximately as defined by Federal Power Commission. 2 Figures for 1948, 1949, and 1950 represent actual operating data. COMMITTEE OBSERVATIONS The Survey Committee views the present outlook of the electric power situation with grave concern. It believes that the increase in generating capability, as scheduled, would in most instances meet the foreseeable needs and possible eventualities of the next three years with reasonable safety and assurance. Failure to meet these objectives, however, can seriously weaken the country's position at the very time when increased industrial strength and economic superiority become most vital. High industrial production must be backed by an adequate and unfailing supply of electric power. Construction of necessary new equipment and new power projects are long-term undertakings. They cannot wait until the needs for the additional power are upon us. They must precede and not follow. The Electric Power Systems have planned on that basis. The importance and essentiality of a substantial increase in capability of the electric power systems to adequately meet the requirements for defense production and for sustaining the desired national economy apparently have not been fully appreciated by all of the defense agencies. The initiative taken by the Defense Production Administration in forming a committee of experienced personnel to review load estimates and requirements in the various areas of the country is encouraging. It is hoped that as a result of the work of this group and the data obtained, together with other pertinent data, the relative urgency of the new power projects will become more evident, so that preference can be given to those needed most. In this manner the effects of material shortages on the electric power situation will at least be minimized. Otherwise there may be a condition where many unfinished projects will exist throughout the country. PART II. STATUS OF PRODUCTION OF HEAVY ELECTRIC POWER EQUIPMENT This section of the report presents a summary of information relative to shipments, scheduled production, and estimated open manufacturing capacity of 19 of the country's leading manufacturers of heavy electric power equipment as of October 1, 1951. These manufacturers represent the nation's main sources of equipment of the types and sizes covered by the survey. The data given herein pertain to: Large Steam Turbine-Generators-10,000 kw and larger In meetings held with the individual manufacturers during the survey, the materials situation and its effects on production were discussed in detail. The manufacturers presented data concerning their material allotments in relation to actual requirements, and reviewed their experience in attempts to obtain the materials allotted to them. The effects of lack of materials on scheduled production are reflected only in part in the schedules presented herein. Uncertainties with respect to material supplies make it impossible for manufacturers to predict more than a short time ahead what changes may have to be made in their schedules. The situation is aggravated by the fact that various materials at different times become more difficult to obtain than others, with the result that production is thrown out of balance first one way and then another. Under these circumstances it is not possible to determine the extent to which production of individual units may be affected. The manufacturers are making every effort to keep delays to a minimum and are continuously hopeful that the material supply situation will improve. Thus, scheduled shipping dates for individual units are continued in the schedules until extensions become inevitable. The manufacturers recognize, however, that with the material supply situation as it is, the over-all production will fall further and further behind, with the result that existing schedules will be considerably lengthened. This should be kept clearly in mind in reviewing the schedules presented herein. The estimates of open manufacturing capacity shown for the various classes of equipment are based upon the productive capacity of existing manufacturing facilities, assuming that production of equipment now on order would proceed according to schedule and that materials required for the additional equipment would be readily obtainable. The figures, therefore, represent the potential capacity of manufacturing facilities rather than the amount of additional capacity that could be produced under existing conditions. Table III shows, as of October 1, 1951, the total capacity of each class of equipment covered by the survey, shipped and scheduled for shipment during the period starting with 1948. This tabulation also shows the percentage distribution of the capacity among the different groups of purchasers. Tables XI through XVII at the end of this report give additional details. Table IV shows the total capacity of electric generating equipment shipped since the beginning of 1951 and on order scheduled for shipment as of October 1, 1951, and includes corresponding data as of April 1, 1951. The table also shows new capacity scheduled between April 1 and October 1 and the capacity shipped during the same period. At the bottom of the table the changes in scheduled shipments between April 1 and October 1, 1951, are shown. The data show that new capacity scheduled during the 6-month period exceeds the capacity shipped during the same period. Also, as of October 1, the scheduled shipments for 1951 to U. S. Electric Power Systems are 458,100 kw less than shown in April. Scheduled shipments for 1952 have increased by only 54,400 kw. This increase is less than the amount transferred from 1951 because of the rescheduling of certain units from 1952 to 1953. The increases in scheduled production for 1953 and beyond chiefly result from new orders placed since April 1. The following pages show similar data for the individual class of equipment covered by the survey. TABLE III.-Shipments and scheduled shipments for the period 1948 and later years, as of Oct. 1, 1951 TABLE IV.-Total electric generating capacity, thermal and hydraluic (4,000 kilowatts and larger) kilowatts Total capacity shipped and on order and scheduled for ship United States electric power sys United States industrials. LARGE STREAM TURBINE-GENERATORS (10,000 KW AND LARGER) Scheduled production of large steam turbine-generators for all classes of customers, as of October 1, 1951, totals 26,361,200 kw against 24,050,500 kw as of April 1, 1951, an increase of 2,310,700 kw, or 9.6 per cent. The total of new capacity scheduled since April 1 is 4,993,200 kw, compared with shipments during the same period of 2,682,500 kw. For U. S. Electric Power Systems, scheduled production as of October 1 is 24,007,200 kw against 21,595,500 kw as of April 1, an increase of 2,411,700 kw or 11 percent. The total of new capacity scheduled since April 1 is 4,349,200 kw, compared with shipments during the same period of 1,937,500 kw. As of October 1, 1951, the total shipments scheduled for U. S. Electric Power Systems in 1951 are 390,000 kw less than shown in April. Production scheduled for 1952 is 20,800 kw less than in April. The increase in scheduled production shown for 1953 and beyond reflects new orders placed since April 1. As of October 1, total scheduled production for both 1952 and 1953 is at the limit of the present estimated full manufacturing capacity. Therefore, any further delays in production must necessarily affect the schedules over this entire period. It is also apparent that any further manufacturing time lost could not be recovered until sometime in 1954. Manufacturers report that they are being allotted less material than actually required to maintain their schedules and that it has not been possible to obtain delivery of all materials allotted them. By utilizing normal working inventories, the slippage up to the present has been less than it would otherwise have been. Such inventories, however, have been exhausted and cannot be replaced. Production is thus severely retarded and brought to a hand-to-mouth basis. The estimated open manufacturing capacity of 200,000 kw shown for 1953 applies to units in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 kw. Estimated open manufacturing capacity of 5,500,000 kw shown for 1954 applies to a wider range of sizes, the larger machines being available mainly for shipment during the last half of the year. These estimates are based upon the capacity of manufacturing facilities, assuming that all required materials would be readily available. The full manufacturing capacity for building large steam turbine-generators expressed in terms of kilowatts of capacity per year is now estimated to be about 10,000,000 kw. This capacity will vary depending upon the size and type of units involved, the proportions of duplicate designs, and other factors, such as the number of shifts employed and the extent of the workweek. |