The Baltic and

North Seas

Foreign

One of the opportunities for trouble constantly open to the European powers has been a dreaded monopoly of the Baltic and North Seas by one or more of the nations having territory bordering thereon. It was particularly feared during the last months, that Germany and Denmark had made an alliance with this object in view. By the signing of two agreements simultaneously on April 23, at Berlin and St. Petersburg, these fears are set at rest. The North Sea treaty was signed by the Secretary of Foreign Affairs for Germany, the British and French ambassadors, and the ministers to Germany, of Denmark, Holland and Sweden. The Convention relating to the Baltic Sea was signed by the representatives of Russia, Germany, Sweden and Denmark. In both agreements the signatories engage to make no changes in ownership of their respective territorial possessions bordering on these seas. Any event threatening to disturb the status quo shall be cause for conference regarding the concerted action to be taken for its preservation.

Since our last issue the reorganization of the British cabinet has taken place. It Governmental involved few changes and Affairs in these were mainly transGreat Britain positions. David LloydGeorge is promoted to the place of Chancellor of the Exchequer and Lord Tweedmouth becomes President of the Council. Reginald McKenna is transferred to the office of First Lord of the Admiralty, while Walter Runciman succeeds him in the presidency of the board of education. Earl Crewe takes the place of Lord Elgin as Secretary of State for the Colonies, and Winston Spencer Churchill that of Mr. Lloyd-George as president of the board

Affairs

of trade. John Morley remains Secretary of State for India, but in order to do so, must for health reasons, give up work in the House of Commons and will therefore be made a peer. As his democratic tendencies are well known, this move has excited some surprise, but it was a choice between that and giving up the office where he has proved himself valuable. Sir Edward Grey, Messrs. Birrell, Gladstone, Burns and others retain their former offices. These cabinet changes involve four by-elections. Of these, Mr. Churchill's was lost for the government, the northwest division of Manchester returning his opponent, Mr. Joynson-Hicks, Conservative, by a majority of 1,019. The Liberals acknowledge that this is a serious blow to their cause. Radicals assert that it has a like effect on free trade. After a sharp contest Mr. Churchill was successful in winning the Dundee seat. Liberal majority, however, was reduced almost half. Likewise, another by-election, that at Wolverhampton, where in the last election Sir Henry Fowler had a plurality of 2,865, was held for the Liberals by a majority of only eight. It is undeniable that the government has lost heavily of late in the support of the people. For this various reasons are assigned: opposition to the licensing bill and failure to carry through measures promised at the general election.

Trouble in India

The

Both from without and within the British are having trouble in India. A plot among the natives in Bengal has been discovered and over thirty persons were arrested. A large number of bombs were also seized. Examination of those arrested revealed plans to kill General Kitchener, the commander-in-chief of the

British army in India, and other high officials. Prominent Bengalese appear to be implicated. Serious raids have been made by Afghans across the northwestern border in the vicinity of Khyber Pass. Arms and ammunition have been smuggled in through Persian Baluchistan and large forces of natives assembled within British territory. Most disturbing fact of all is the indifference of the Ameer of Afghanistan, who has professed to be in friendly alliance with Great Britain. On May 2 between thirteen thousand and twenty thousand Afghans attacked the Michnikandach blockhouse and caravansary, which are held by a detachment of the Khyber rifles. The garrison defeated the attempt. Major-General Sir James Willcocks, who had gone to the Baru Valley to secure obedience and order from the Zakkakhels tribesmen, immediately went to Landi Kotal at the Afghan end of the Khyber Pass with cavalry and infantry troops. The Afghans were driven back with a loss to the British of seven men killed and forty-seven wounded. An effort was made by the Mollahs - religious dignitaries who led the Afghans, to raise the fiery cross and rouse Mohammedan fanaticism, but without effect. No support was given by the Mohammedans or by other tribesmen, so that there is no reason to fear any general uprising among the natives of India.

China Boycotts

Japan

When China was resisting the demands of Japan in regard to the seizure of the steamer Tatsu Maru, she threatened that if compelled to concede them, she would institute a boycott against Japanese commerce. This threat is now being fulfilled. Japanese steamships are leaving the ports of Focchow, Amoy, Swatow, Hongkong, and even Manila, Melbourne and New York without any invoices of Chinese goods. Merchants at Hankow and interior towns are refusing to accept the notes of the Yokohama Specie Bank. Word comes from Canton that the determination is not to lift the boycott until the loss to Japanese commerce reaches $150,000,000. The self-government societies are managing this retaliative movement, and the leader of the one at Canton asserts that Japan

"will learn to her cost" that she made a bad mistake when "by main force she compelled China to recede from her righteous position regarding the Tatsu Maru."

cott Benefit

the World

It will be interesting to observe the effect this boycott has upon the developWill the Boy- ment of Asiatic politics. It will not be difficult for the astute Japanese to involve China in some disturbance which would serve as a pretext for armed interference. On the other hand, Japan is likely to move cautiously. Korea is furnishing difficulties enough for her just at present, while the financial situation of the empire is such as to arouse serious anxiety at home. As we have previously insisted, the real significance of the action of China is in its testifying to the new national spirit. Just how far this will involve hostility to other nations can not yet be foreseen. But it can hardly be questioned that the "open door," which was so seriously threatened, is likely to be of more real commercial importance. It is greatly to be regretted that the United States does not more clearly see what opportunity the boycott offers for an extension of American trade. Unfortunately, American exporters are a generation behind those of Europe in their capacity to adjust themselves to the peculiar conditions of trade outside of America.

This Chinese-Japanese affair is already having its influence upon American The Boycott plans. Our minister to

and the China, Mr. Rockwell, adUnited States vises our government that it would be ill advised to send the fleet to China on its way around the world. There was danger lest its presence should give rise to two opposite suspicions: one that the United States was ready to coöperate with China, or at least to express its approval of the advance of Japan into Manchuria; and the other that the presence of the fleet would be understood as an attempt on the part of America to coöperate with Japan in stopping the boycott. Because of this danger the fleet will now be divided into two squadrons and appear in Chinese and Japanese waters practically simultaneously. Chinese public opinion is already having its influence in international affairs.

Indicative of changing conditions in China is the action taken in the canceling Other Indica of the imperial rescript of tions of Change 1899 which gave official

in China rank to the bishops and priests of the Roman Catholic hierarchy. In consequence of this cancellation some eleven hundred Roman Catholic missionary priests no longer rank as prefects and forty-six bishops must resign the title and official position of viceroys. Another notable event has been the action of Yuan Shi-Kai in establishing a personal police force in Peking under the direction of foreigners for the protection of officials and foreigners. This was done because of the incendiary fires and other disturbances associated with the conspiracy against the government recently discovered. One hundred men were arrested, most of whom had been educated abroad. Seven telegraphers connected with the Foreign Office were condemned to life imprisonment and hard labor on the frontier for having be

The

Italy Turkey categorically refused to permit the Italians to open postoffices throughout Turkish dominions, a right already enjoyed by Germany, Austria and Great Britain. tria and Great Britain. Thereupon Italy gave orders for its fleet of thirty-two vessels to appear in Turkish waters. Porte promptly granted the demand for postoffices and proceeded also to meet certain other demands of Italy regarding the right of Italians to hold land in Tripoli and of Italian steamers to touch at ports in the same country. So much to the credit of the navy in diplomacy. We do not know the justice of the case, but in the present condition of Turkey the proba

bility is that Italy had good claims for her extreme action. Other nations have a strong financial grip upon Turkish cominerce and mineral resources, and, particularly in the case of Great Britain and France, are able to get results by more indirect methods. Germany has of late years played the role of champion of Turkish interests and has been granted many privileges on that account. But the whole situation is anomalous, and if the European powers were not so much afraid of each other, might well give rise to serious difficulties.

States

Turkish affairs have also been more or less in evidence because of the persistent troubles in Macedonia. Russia, having The Problems rejected the proposal of of Border Great Britain to provide certain administrative reforms in Macedonia, has made certain counter proposals relative to Macedonian finances. Thus far nothing definite has resulted. The chief point at issue is the deficit arising from the maintenance of troops which are optimistically supposed to maintain order in Macedonia. The British government intends to force the Porte to care for this deficit by withdrawing its conditional consent to the increase in customs, which it was hoped would

provide the Porte with the necessary 'means for Macedonian administration. The relations of Russia and Great Britain relative to Turkey are to some extent complicated by the action of Russia in a raid into Persian territory. The exact facts of the case are not clear, but it would seem as if a considerable Russian force had attacked the Kurds and had pursued them into Persian territory with considerable loss to both parties. According to the agreement with Great Britain, Russia is to maintain order along the northern Persian frontier. It remains to be seen whether this agreement will be held by Great Britain to cover actual invasion of Persian territory. More than that, the German interests in Persia are now becoming considerable, and it would not be surprising if in the near future the Persian question would be quite as prominent as that of Turkey now is in European politics.

Portugal and Its New King

On the eighty-second anniversary of the establishment of Constitutional government in Portugal, the Cortes was reopened by King Manuel. On his way to the building he was closely guarded by soldiers. The measures recommended for enactment are the revision of the Constitution and the reform of the electoral system. The king has been anxious to restore to the national treasury the money withdrawn from it by his father, and for this purpose desired a thorough investigation, but this plan is not acceptable to the political leaders. It is asserted by the opposition party that the purposes for which the money was used would thus be revealed and it would be shown that the royal family received for private expenses less than half of the $1,500,000, the leaders of the rotative parties using the balance. The value of the crown jewels taken by King Carlos, with the approval of the government, to pay some of his debts, will be refunded by King Manuel from his own personal fortune. On May 6, the king took the oath to support the Constitution and was proclaimed King of Portugal and the Portuguese possessions. There was no coronation ceremony, as the crown is never worn by Portugal's ruler, it being dedicated to the patron saint of the country.

Outlook. Particularly

Mr. Taft's

which also has claims against Venezuela, has been arbitrated with an unfavorable decision for the Americans. To reopen the case looks decidedly unjust. If we are to have arbitration we must be ready to accept the undesirable as well as the favorable decision. Taken altogether, the Venezuela situation is by no means a credit to the United States. It is to be hoped that sooner or later we shall be given the exact facts regarding the entire matter. Where is the report of the commissioner who was sent to investigate? It would be interesting reading.

The longer the campaign for the nomination to the Presidency runs, the more The Presidential does it appear that the anti-Bryan and the antiTaft forces have little hope of electing any one of their candidates. At the time of writing, Mr. Taft has within about fifty of a majority of delegates, and there can be little doubt that after a complimentary vote for Mr. Cannon the Illinois delegation can be swung to the Secretary of War. Neither Mr. Fairbanks nor Mr. Knox can be regarded as much more likely of nomination than Mr. Cannon, although undoubtedly the country at large would be pleased with the nomination of Mr. Hughes. His fight against the forces of corruption in New York State has made him a national hero, while Speaker Cannon's attitude toward legislation, and particularly the investigation of the alleged paper trust, has brought him unpopularity. Mr. Taft has conducted himself in such a dignified manner and has made such an invariably favorable impression wherever he has spoken that he has steadily gained in the estimation of the country. More than that, there is getting to be a widespread feeling that a man of his independence, strength of character and exceptional experience in administrative matters would make an admirable President at the present juncture.

The first of the national conventions for nominating candidates for the Presidency met in Chicago on Sunday, May 10. The opening debates showed a difference of opinion as to the advisability

The Socialist Convention