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which they might draw quietly. The figures for Russia represent gold roubles, in this diagram also. They should be reduced by about one-third to bring them to paper. The violent oscillations between 1883 and 1892 reveal the volcanic state of the Continent in
those years. The high figures of the United States, Italy, Austria
, and France between 1868 and 1872 are due to wars, and should be excluded to get a clear view.
If the military expenditure of the Powers is apparently declining, the same cannot be said of the naval expenditure. A very marked
increase on the Continent began about 1891, and Russia and Germany have since then advanced by leaps and bounds. Italy alone, owing to her complete exhaustion, falls steadily from 1888. As for England, the prodigious increase between 1872, her low-water mark under Mr. Goschen's first administration at the Admiralty, and 1898 shows the greatness of the strain which presses on her. Yet it cannot be
said that our outlay is extravagant when the absence of the indirect tax of compulsory service is taken into account. Rather, it seems that we are still indulging a perilous economy.' Of what profit to wipe millions off our national debt if to-morrow the enemy will mulct us of hundreds of millions ?
Last in the series of general diagrams are the special' exports. It will be noted that Germany is steadily gaining on England, while the advance of the United States is simply phenomenal. There is reason to think that the Russian returns of and before 1878 are not converted into British currency at the same rate as those subsequent to that date, or refer to a different set of facts. Depressions in trade appear to affect not particular nations, but, as we should expect, the
Expenditure on Defence The upper set of figures are for exports, lower for defence expenditure. National Debt and population are inserted (the first from fig. 1) merely to show the rise or fall
. The figures do not apply to them; but each vertical square represents an increment of 2,000,000 souls iu popes lation and 50,000,0001. in National Debt.
civilised world. English and American trade is subject to the most violent fluctuations. It is difficult to reconcile this diagram with Cobden's prophecies. That Protectionist States are overhauling us fast can no longer be denied. It looks as though, before the end of the nineteenth century, the special' exports of Germany and of the United States will be greater than our own.
The last series of four diagrams, for England, France, Germany, and Russia, is the most interesting. There are combined the lines for national debt, transferred from the general diagram and intended merely to show the rise or fall, the curves of the special exports and of outlay on defence, military and naval. Lastly, the increase in population is shown, each square vertically representing an increment
"The upper set of figures are for exports, lower for defence expenditure.
of 2,000,000 souls. All these diagrams are drawn to the same scale, so that they can be compared. In none of the four are the special' exports increasing in the same ratio as the outlay on armaments. The stagnation of the population in France reveals a very grave danger, while the English line of increase does not compare at all favourably with that of Germany or Russia. It is evident that in the not distant future we shall be heavily outnumbered in Europe. In finance, it is true, we have a great advantage, as our debt is declining; but then, on the other hand, a rapidly increasing outlay on defence has to be met, and our national wealth, as measured by special exports, is almost stationary. Germany has à small and slowly increasing general debt, but the various states of the empire have in addition debts of their own, that of Prussia amounting to not
National Debt HHH Population
Expenditure on Defence
less than 320,000,0001. Of this, however, part has been incurred in productive outlay. It should be observed that the German export figures show a larger and steadier proportionate increase than our own. Hence it would appear that year by year Germany is growing in strength as against ourselves, and that, in spite of her heavy load of
armaments, the outlook for her is a better one than for us. If our white colonies were included, the result would not very substantially
rove our position. They have spent inordinately, the national