A. (2) (e) What is the Canal organization's general view with respect to the forecasts for levels of future Canal traffic, the projection of tolls receipts and the accuracy of those predictions to this point in time?

The basic forecast of Canal traffic produced by a consultant is contained in the study Projections of Panama Canal Commodity Flows, Transits and Tolls Through 1985, Economics Research Associates, January 4, 1974. The ERA forecast through 1976 for transits, tolls and cargo is shown below in comparison to the actual for 1974 and 1975, and to the current Panama Canal Company estimate for 1976. The ERA forecast considers only oceangoing commercial traffic and assumes that the Suez Canal would remain closed for the forecast years. The ERA study predated the Suez reopening by seventeen months.

TABLE 14.-FORECAST OF CANAL TRAFFIC AND TOLLS-ECONOMICS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, OCEANGOING COMMERCIAL 1974-76

A. (2) (f) What is the Canal organization's general view with respect to the maximum revenue potential for Canal tolls?

We are unable without further study to determine the maximum revenue potential for Canal tolls.

B. CANAL TRAFFIC AND REVENUES (DATA BASE FOR CALCULATION)

(1) For trade routes which are either significant to Canal operation or for which the Canal constitutes an essential part, indicate (a) the proportion of the types of vessels which ply these routes; (b) the proportion of the flags of registry of vessels which move on these routes; (c) the mix of major commodities which are shipped through the Canal on these routes; (d) the total Canal tolls for each route realized from transiting vessels on these routes; and (e) the sensitivity of Canal traffic on the route to increases in tolls and specifically to the proposed measurement rules.

Data responding to parts (a) through (d) of the questions are shown as Table 15 through Table 18 respectively. Part (e) of the question is addressed in narrative form following Table 18.

TABLE 16.-TRANSITS-FLAGS OF VESSELS BY TRADE ROUTE, OCEANGOING COMMERCIAL, FISCAL YEAR 1975

Note: Trade routes-1. East coast United States-Asia. 2. Europe-west coast United States/Canada. 3. Europe-Asia. 4. East coast United States-west coast South America. 5. Europe-west coast South America. 6. South American intercoastal. 7. U.S. intercoasta! (including Hawaii). 8. East coast United States/Canada--Oceania. 9. Europe-Oceania. 10. East Coast Canada.-Asia.

Source: Executive planning staff, Panama Canal Company, 1975.

TABLE 17.-COMMODITIES BY TRADE ROUTE-OCEANGOING COMMERCIAL, FISCAL YEAR 1975

Note: Trade routes-1. East coast United States-Asia. 2. Europe-west coast United States/Canada. 3. Europe-Asia. 4. East coast United States-west coast South America, 5. Europe-west coast South America. 6. South American intercoastal. 7. U.S. intercoastal (including Hawaii). 8. East coast United States/Canada-Oceania. 9. Europe-Oceania. 10. East coast Canada-Asia.

Source: Executive planning staff, Panama Canal Company, 1975.

TABLE 18.-Tolls by trade routes-oceangoing commercial, fiscal year 1975

Trade route:

East coast United States-Asia..

Tolls (thousands)

Europe-west coast South America__

South America intercoastal__

U.S. intercoastal (including Hawaii).

Europe-west coast Uhited States/Canada_

$44,756

Europe-Asia_.

10, 843

East coast United States-west coast South America_.

14, 794

East coast United States/Canada-Oceania_
Europe-Oceania_

East coast Canada-Asia_

All other__

Total.

Source: Executive planning staff, Panama Canal Company, 1975.

Sensitivity of Canal traffic to toll increases as shown in the various IRA studies is based on an analysis of major commodity groups which, as shown in Table 17 above, can be related to the most important Panama Canal trade routes. The original study took into account the typical routing of cargos as identified in Panama Canal data and as shown in the 1974 ERA forecast, and the fact that much of the tonnage of particular Canal cargos is single route oriented. For example, coarse grains and oilseeds (24.2 million tons) move largely from the Gulf U.S. to Asia, coal and coke (26.3 million tons) moves particularly from the East Coast U.S. to Asia, etc. Tables indicating Canal traffic sensitivity are included in the IRA study Review of Sensitivity Estimates Contained in Panama Canal Toll Increases: Effect on the U.S. Economy, February 1974.

B. (2) For those nations whose vessels transit the Canal, indicate (a) by flag of registry the commodities which transit the Canal; (b) the tolls paid by vessels of those countries which are major Canal users (the total amount of tolls and those paid on the critical trade routes); and (c) the sensitivity of each nation's vessels to various increases in tolls and to the proposed measurement rules in particular.

Data responding to parts (a) and (b) of the question is given in Table 19 and Table 20 respectively. With regard to part (c) of the question, sensitivity of each nation's vessels to toll increases and to the measurement rules changes has not been analyzed per se but analysis has been made of the total impact of such increases on some 30 plus countries. The studies are cited in the bibliography.