Estimate of supplemental costs for benefits under unemployment compensation for ex-servicemen program for fiscal year 1964 1. Assumed State insured unemployment rate (percent). 2. Number of weeks compensated for "UCX Only," excluding supplemental and joint claims, based on assumed State insured unemployment rate.. 3. Average weekly benefit amount excluding supplemental and joint claimsbased on the trend during the 1st 6 months of fiscal year 1964 and including adjustments for the Secretary's revised schedule which is based on the Uniform Services Pay Act of 1963.. 4. "UCX only" benefit cost, excluding supplemental and joint claims (line 2 times line 3) 5. Adjustment factor for inclusion of supplemental and joint claims based on January-September 1963 experience for fiscal year 1964 2. 6. "UCX total" benefit cost including supplemental and joint claims (line 4 times line 5). 7. Minimum payment balances in States.. Total.. 1 Rounded. 2 This recent experience is used for fiscal year 1964 because of the impact of the California extended duration program which suspended payment of benefits of new claimants after September 1963. Explanation of items appearing on page Benefits-10 of UCFE-UCX Supplemental for fiscal year 1964. Original assumption was 1,890,000 weeks of UCX only at an average payment of $33.50. UCX only costs would then be 1,890,000 $33.50=$63,315.000 or rounded to $63,300,000. This was increased by 3 percent to adjust for weeks of combined UCX-State UI $63,300,000×0.03=$1,899,000 or $1,900,000 rounded. Total original estimate was: Costs.. Adjustment.. Total... $63, 300, 000 1,900, 000 65, 200, 000 On latest experience it is now estimated that actual weeks of UCX only will approximate 2,544,000 and weekly payments will average $33.25. UCX only costs would be 2,544,000-$33.25=$84,588,000 or $84,600,000 rounded. To adjust for combined UCX-State UI claims would now call for an increase of 4 percent. This adjustment would be $84,600,000×0.04=$3,384,000 which rounds to $3,400,000. Total UCX is now estimated at Costs $84, 600, 000 3, 400, 000 Total 88, 000, 000 Comparison of UCFE-UCX estimates and experience, fiscal year 1964 and fiscal year 1963 A comparison of the first 6 months and second 6 months in each of the 2 fiscal years will show: 1 Although UCX claims have been running below last year throughout fiscal year 1964 the gap has been narrowing in recent weeks. If the trend continues the 2d half increase should be comparatively higher than last year. The dollar increase should be commensurate and will reflect some impact from the Uniformed Services Pay Act of 1963. |