mers ..

ART. XI. An Eftimate of the comparative Strength of Britain during the prefent and Four preceding Reigns; and of the Loffes of her Trade from every War fince the Revolution. By George ChalTo which is added, an Effay on Population, by the Lord Chief Juftice Hale. 4to. 5 s. fewed. Dilly. 1782. MID the apprehenfions of the timid, augmented by the predictions of gloomy fpeculators, and the heedlefs declamations of party, happily there are not wanting kind hands to administer an occafional cup of comfort to those who cannot fleep for thinking of poor Old England. The prefent writer very juftly observes;

Little has he ftudied the theory of man, or obferved his familiar life, who has not remarked, that the individual finds the highest gratification in deploring the pleasures of the paft, even amid the enjoyments of the prefent. Prompted thus by temper, he has in every age complained of its depopulation and decline, while the world was the most populous, and its affairs the most profperous. From the days of Elizabeth to the prefent, a period wherein this nation underwent the happieft change, a twelvemonth has scarcely paffed away, in which a treatise has not been published, either by ignorance, by good intentions, or defign, bewailing the lofs of our commerce, and the ruin of the flate. Yet, is there reafon to hope, that as found philofophy triumphs over univerfal bigotry, mankind, as they grow wifer, will become less fubject to the dominion of temporary terrors, far lefs to the lafting impreffions of fancied mifery.

The reader, who honours the following fheets with an attentive perufal, may probably find, that though we have advanced by wide fteps, during the last century, in our knowledge of the fcience of politics, we have ftill much to learn; but that the fummit can only be gained by fubftituting accurate refearch for delufive fpeculation, and rejecting zeal of paradox for moderation of opinion.'

Mr. Chalmers, feconding the efforts of Meffrs. Wales and Howlet, in rescuing the minds of the public from defpondency, fuccefsfully oppofes calculation to calculation, on the subjects of trade, internal ftrength and population: circumftances that are infeparably connected together, in decline or in profperity. From an attentive comparison of a variety of facts and computations, as ftated by our political and commercial writers, he concludes, That in every war there is a point of depreffion in trade, as there is in all things, beyond which it does not decline; from which it gradually rifes, unlefs it meets with additional checks, beyond the extent of its former greatnefs? and this he illuftrates fummarily in the following table:

Author alfo, as we believe, of Political Annals of the prefent United Colonies. See Rev. vol. LXII. p. 464, and vol. LXIII. p. 15. : King

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nual cuftom of - £ 2,503,335.

We have a future war to wait for, before the Author can have the fatisfaction of claiming the iffue of the last inftance in his table; and long may it be before any new disaster of that kind checks our recovery from prefent difficulties !

Our

Our early writers on commerce had no clearer lights to guide them, than the vague entries at the cuftom-house; but when, in 1696, the office of inspector-general of exports and imports was established, our Author confiders his ledger as the most curious and important record to be found in any country.

It is a found maxim in the law of England, which the philofophers of England ought to adopt in their refearches, that the best evidence that the nature of every cafe will admit, ought always to be afked and given. Animated by this fentiment, rather than impreffed with any doubtfulness of the fufficiency of the Infpector's Ledger, to prove all which it was intended to eftablish, the compiler of thefe fheets looked for fupplemental proofs. He found in the tonnage of our fhipping, all the certainty that the other has been fuppofed to want. The fame reafons which had induced the traders to enter at the Custom-house, in respect to their merchandizes, too much, incited them, with regard to their veffels, to regifter too little: in the first operation, they were governed by their vanity in the fecond, by their intereft: and if the one furnishes an evidence too flattering, the other gives a teftimony as much under the truth, as the other has been faid to be beyond it. As King William's reign may claim the honour of having appointed the afeful infpector of our exports and imports, Queen Anne's adminiftration enjoys the merit of having established the register of shipping, which is ftill more fatisfactory in its notices, becaufe it is till more precife in its entries.The beft intelligence, indeed, on the fubject of our navigation, during the interefting period from the Reftoration to the Revolution, must be collected from detached details, lying obfcure, and almost forgotten, among the memorials of ftate: but, from the year 1709, the lifts of thipping have been regularly taken, though, previous to the year 1747, they have not been always carefully preferved. From this date, that most important register has been fludioafly kept; and it offers to the public fuch a body of evidence, with regard to a fubject the most interesting to a naval nation, as to admit of little controverfy, fince it is the best that the nature of the cafe admits.

Such then are the data from which our Author has formed his commercial tables; and the preceding fummary of his inquiries into the progrefs of our trade, will, upon the face of it, be allowed to justify hitherto the principle he has advanced.

It may be remarked, by the bye, and left as a curious circumftance to exercise the faculties of political fpeculators, that upon comparing the totals of our foreign trade at the periods ftated in the foregoing table, with the progreffive increase of the national revenue, raifed from the people; it will be found, that the expences of government abforb by far the greater portion of the income of foreign commerce! But fhould this occafion any furprife, it will, when we contemplate the extenfion of our manufactures, and the face of bufinefs every where vifible, furnish good collateral evidence of an increafe

of population; and prove, as our Author obferves, that it is no paradox to affirm, that the best cuftomers of England are the people of England. Yet fhould the time ever arrive, when the foreign trade of this country falls fhort of the regular expences of the ftate, there might perhaps be jufter causes of dejection than any we have yet experienced. We shall fee our Author's anfwer to a very common, and a very interesting question;

It may nevertheless be pertinently asked, Are taxes and debts to increase thus without end? The answer can only be general, and here it is: They may accumulate, while our people, and induftry, and manufactures, and commerce, with the confequent opulence, continue to increafe: as both have grown up together, without affecting much the induftrious claffes, the period of both is the fame. It is a ftrong argument of the fuperior populoufnefs of the present times over thofe of King William, that ten million and a half are now levied with eafe, while three million and a half were collected then with difficulty.'

From an outline view of our national commerce, the Author defcends to like chronological details of our trade with each country in Europe, in order to afcertain the balance of trade, and to find whether the appearances of our navigation denote a rifing or a declining commerce. The inferences he draws from thefe particular examinations, in reference to the apprehenfions entertained from the American revolution, will appear in the following paffage:

The foregoing details, thort in their flatements, yet fatisfactory in their inferences, contain an account of our commerce in Europe from the beginning of the current century to the commencement of the prefent war. And they were fubmitted to the public, though in all ufeful truths there is dulnefs, in order to furnith facts for the two claffes of men, who have been fuppofed to be now divided in their opinions with regard to our commercial profperity or decline. Each party may probably find arguments to itrengthen its fyftem, without changing its fentiments, as the pride of man is hurt by admitting that he had once been mistaken. Polerity form, at laft, a right judgment, when their more candid enquiries have been faciItated by the publication of documents, authentic in their proofs, and convincing in their circumstances. An historical detail of the trade of our faâories in Africa and Afia, as well as of our colonies in America, was defignedly omitted, because it is a fact known and acknowledged, that their trafic has flourished prodig oufly: our coJonial commerce has profpered, fince we have fottered it by every means which interested traders could devife, or the mercantile fyltem admited; we have cherished it by bounties, by crawbacks, by the obaradicas that have been thrown in the way of European rivals. If we again compare trade to a fluid, we may callly perceive, that when mounds were railed on the banks, and thoals were formed in the channel, it would fad a vent by a thoufand paffages: it was directed in its courfe to the colonies, and it therefore no longer

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ran with its former force into the feveral European ports. In every community there can only exift a certain quantity of flock, either for carrying on its agriculture, its manufactures, its commerce, or for the aggregate of its whole mercantile tranfactions. If part of the capital, which had been ufefully employed in husbandry, is. withdrawn, in order to cultivate the cane and the coffee of the Weft Indies, our domeftic agriculture muft neceffarily fuffer in the exact proportion to the fum taken away: if the bufinefs of ship building is no longer carried on near the banks of our rivers, but on those of our colonies, that important manufacture can be no longer confidered as a national one. If a portion of the capitals, which had been engaged in tranfacting our commerce with our European correfpondents, is diverted to the plantations, our European traffic must neceffarily languifh; it muft decline in the exact proportion to the amount of the ftock withdrawn. When these principles are applied to the foregoing details, we fhall find in the comparison the true reafon why fome branches of trade have actually withered, why others have not greatly profpered. And it has been fhewn by the numbers of our hipping cleared outwards, fince they were excluded from our colonies, that a revulfion had taken place, whereby the capital which had been gradually invefted in the plantationtrade, was again employed in its original bufinefs. They who amidst their delufions prefumed, that the mechanic, the merchant, or the mariner could be induced to fit down inactive and idle, only evinced how little they had ftudied the science of mankind, who delight in activity and adventures. As Spain had been formerly ruined by withdrawing her wealth from domeftic industry, and turning her energy to distant enterprizes, more than by the emigrations of her people, or the importation of the metals; fo England ran fimilar risques in the pursuit of colonization, from fimilar caufes producing fimilar effects. It was the greatnefs of her capitals and credit, the skill and the diligence of her people, and other means that cannot be fo eafily defcribed, which have prevented her colonial policy, in respect to trade, from introducing greater diforder into her European commerce, and bringing on a real decline.'

On the much agitated queftion of our population, he eafily difcredits the premises from which Dr. Price forms his very difcouraging conclufions; namely, the returns of official enumerations of houses for the purposes of taxation: but this fubject having been already difcuffed by Wales and Howlet, we hall only obferve, that the present writer Atrongly corroborates what his predecesors advanced. He goes even farther; for he not only cites hiftorical vouchers for a progreffive increase of population from the Norman conqueft; but reviews the alterations of government and improvements in civil policy, which favoured a multiplication of the people, to establish the fact. The refult of his inveftigation of this intricate fubject, is to prove, as far as a computation of this kind will admit of proof, the prefent inhabitants of England and Wales, inftead

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