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exceed twenty per cent. takes place on the 31st instant, and will amount to near one million of dollars, as in the ensuing year the whole importations will, .by the estimates, be less, and the consumption of foreign articles paying duties is for that and other reasons not likely to increase, it resulis, from these and some circumstances before mentioned, that the whole amount of revenue which will be received from imports during the year 1836, will probably be from one to two millions less than in 1835. if we look forward 10 1842, when the tariff is, by our present laws, to undergo a great change, and if we regard, in the intervening time, the
probable exports of domestic produce and imports of foreign merchandise, or the presumed consumption of that sinall portion of the latter paying duties, it may fairly be concluded, that after making due allowances as to all these, on account of our increasing population and wealth, and deducting those allowances from the biennial reduction, not only will the revenue accruing from custonis probably niininish at the average rale of about one-third of a million per annum, or near two-thirds of a million every second year until the first of January, 1842, but then, at one blow, over two and a half millions more of the duties above twenty per
cent. is to be struck off; and on the first of July, the same year, over two and a half millions niore, and some new articles, for-the first time, be rendered entirely free. All the reduction which is to take place in that year alone, will thus amount to between five and six millions of dollars ; and the whole annual revenue from customs will, by 1843, have probably fallen to about nive, instead of its present amount, of about seventeen millions of dollars.
Explanation of the Estimates of Receipts from Lands. · The revenue sron lands the ensuing year, has been estimated ạt four millions of dollars. In submitting the estimates for 1835, the amount expected to be received from this source, was, for reasons then stater, calculated half a million higher than it had ever been before, and was described as still too low, if the Department had not anticipated that large sales would be made for the India'ns, the proceeds of which were not to go into the Treasury for public uses. But these last sales, delayed
till the first month in the next year, have unexpectedly given place to others, all whose proceeds have so gone into the Treasury. This change, with the operation, in such unexample, force, of the circumstances detailed in those reasons, aided by such an eager thirst for the investment of surplus capital in new lands, and the bright prospects of large profits from their immediate cultivation for coilon in the southwest, with the extraordinary number of pre-eliption clains allowed, has caused the
actual receipts from their sales, during the year 1835, 10 exceed these on any previous year, by the sum of probably more than six inillions or dollars,
From the fact that many of these sales have not been made to actual settlers, and that much of the land thus sold will remain in the marker to aid in supplying herealier such purchasers; from the probability that some diminution in the price of colion, with the increased cost of labor, will lessen somewhat the ardor for new investments in land in the southwest ; from the circunsi ances that much fewer pre-emption claims exist, and sewer, public sales of lands whose proceeds belong to the Govern
ment, by over two millions of acres, will be advertised the ensuing year; and from the presumption that the surplus capital to be re-invested, derived from the final payınent of our public debt, and from the unusually great exports the last two years, will be reduced, it has not been deemed safe to estimate the receipts, for public purposes, from sales of land in 1836, at more than four millions of dollars.
Besides those receipts, the sales of the Chicka saw lands, postponed as before remarked, to the ensuing year, will probably be considerable, as the quantity offered will be about six millions of acres; and though, by treaty, the proceeds of them must be invested for the Indians, yet the sales will, to their extent, diminish the demand for other lands, whose proceeds would go into the Treasury: In looking beyond the next, and a few. succeeding years, as connected with this subject, it is true that the whole lands still owned by the United States, within the boundaries of the present States and Territories, exceed the vast 'quantity of three hundred and thirty millions of acres; and, west of Missouri and Arkan. sas, perhaps seven hundred and fifty millions more, of which only seventy or eighty millions have yet been specially assigned to the Indians, or in any other way absolutely appropriated.' But though three hundred and thirty millions of acres would alone be enough in quantity, at even the rate of the recent large sales, to continue, for a considerable time, to yield an important share of revenue, it must be remembered, that a demand for it will be limited generally by the extent of the increase of our popu. lation and capital; and that large portions of it, perhaps one-fourth, ought to be deemed waste and water; and probably half of it, as well as much of that which lies west of the present States and Territories, be considered of such an inferior quality, that it cannot be sold for cultiva tion till our population reaches an amount and density which will probably require ages to effect. In illustration of some of these views, it is a remarkable fact, that, of the whole quantity of land surveyed and offered at public sale, from 1789 to 1834, being about one hundred and twentytwo millions of acres, not one-third of it has been sold for any purpose whatever; and that the whole receipts, being a little under fifty millions of dollars, from the whole sales of public lands during that period, have furnished only a small amount, not exceeding three or four millions of neti revenue, beyond the whole cost, in various ways, attending their purchase and management.
But a considerable nett revenue from them, hereafter, if neither given away nor divide, can with safely be expected, and they would then tend to furnish that relief under the common burdens, and that aid towards the common and legitimate objects of the Union, which were intended to be promoted by their original cession to the General Government. The present rate of increase in our population engaged in agricultural pursuits, will not, it is presumed, for six or seven years, create a regular annual demand for immediate cultivation of over one million of acres of the public lands; and it is calculated that from two to four millions more will be bought yearly for investment of capital and re-sale.
The estimate for that time proceeds on the probable presumption that no very large portion of our old cultivated lands will be wholly abandoned, and that ihe new lands annually put into cultivation in the whole Union, have been, and will be to the amount of quite one-half those
bought by the actual settlers, not directly of the United States, but of the several States, or of individual owners. As the wild lands owned by several of the States, or by companies or individuals, whether belonging to them through gist, sale, or otherwise, from either former Governments or the United States, shall increase or diminish in quantity and price, the new sales by the United States are likely to be less or more, and the above proportions to become by those as well as by numerous other cir. cumstances somewhat affected. The whole sales of public lauds for speculation and investment, as well as for immediate cultivation will, therefore, from various causes, some of which have already been specified, probably fluctuate between two and five millions of acres, produciog| from three to six millions of dollars a year till 1842, and indeed not often exceeding the maximum vill most of the rich soils are gone.
A document has been carefully prepared, wbich in some degree verifies these general views, as it shows that the whole sales to the close of 1834,
deducting about six and one.ibird millions of acres, which reverted under our foriner systém, have been only about thirty-seven and a half millions of acres during forty-five years, or on an average only about three-fourths of a million of acres yearly, for immediate cultivation and every other purpose. This quantity sold, with about sixteen millions given away as bounties in the last war, and for schools, colleges, internal improvements, and other public objeets in the new States, being together. almost half as much as all the sales, would, through the whole time, be taking from the public lands by both gist and sale, and for all purposes, little more, if any, when compared with our population, and the additions to it at different periods, than three millions of acres aunu.
ally would be now. It may be instructive, in respect to the estimate of our future proceeds from lands, to recollect that after the present system commenced, the sales never amounted in fact to one million of acres a year till 1815 nor to two millions a year till the temptations of the credit system, and the great rise in the price of cotton to 26 and 34 cents per lb. induced larger purchases, extending to over two millions of acres in 1817, and about five and a half millions in 1819 ;- and thus even fifteen years ago exceeding in quantity, by nearly a million of acres, the large sales of 1834, and exceeding them in the sum promised to be paid, by the almost incredible amount of more than twelve millions of dollars. But the fall of cotton in 1820 to only about half its former price, combined with other causes, left the purchasers in debt to the Government over twenty-two millions of dollars, and with the change from the credit to the cash system, reduced the sales again, to much less than a million of acres a year, caused nearly six millions of the former sales to severt, and keep them down to less than a million in every year after, till the rise of cotion in 1825 gave a new. impulse, which, being aided by other
powerful causes, the sales gradually enlarged till they reached a million again in 1829. Since that, increasing still more rapidly, they have exceeded, during 1834, four millions of acres and during 1835 probably nine millions. Among those other causes, the more extensive introduction of steam power on the western rivers and northern, lakes, with the public improvements in their navigation, and the increased facilities of intercourse by railroads and canals, bave of late added much to the sales of the public lands beyond previous years, and beyond the proportional in
crease of population. To the force of this, causes have been joined, during the last three years, as formerly suggested, the effect of the preemption law, the increase in the price of cotton, and the unusual abundance of surplus capital in 1835, seeking new investments. But much of the great difference to be produced by these causes has, perhaps, happened already. What extraordinary increase of population and demand for new lands the United States, may 'bereafter occur by emigration from Europe, compared with former years, must depend on so maoy conringencies, both here and there, such as good or bad Governments, pros. perity or decline of manufactures, and a taste for emigration to new lands in other quarters of the world, as at present to prevent any person from making a safe estimate.
Difficulties in Estimates as to Customs and Lands. Comparative and speculative views, connected with the subject of our receipts from customs and lands, could be further extended, but their practical utility might be deemed problematicat, as sufficient is believed to have been already státed for all general purposes. Greater confidence is felt in the estimate submitted for the receipts from custoins in 1836, as that offered last year for 1835, founded op soinewhat similar data, has not varied from the ascertained and estimated actual receipts over a million of dollars ; but the actual receipts from lands have, for the various reasons before explained, differed largely ; and, united with the failure to pass some usual and anticipated appropriations at the last session of Congress, have caused most of the increased surplus now in the Treasury. The difficulty in attaiving much certainty in estimating the receipts from either castonis or lands in any particular year in a country so new, enterprising and prosperous as ours, has ever been considerable, in addition to the fluctuations we always shall be liable to from short crops, pestilence, and war. But this difficulty will be more strikingly exemplified till. 1842, under the material alteration from credit to cash payments, and under the continued biennial changes to which the tariff is now subjected. It was showo-m 1822, in a report of a committee of the House of Representatives, that from 1802 to that time, the estimates of our whole receipts differed, either by excesses or deficiences,
from the aciual receipts in different years, from one to forty-three per cent, and in customs alone, from three to seventy-three ; being an average of about sixteen per cent. per annuin. The difference since 1822 nas been carefully examined, and is found 10 vary from less than one per cent. to over forty-one, and averăges annually about thirteen per cent. But the eflects of the irregularity of our actual receipts into the Treasury in arry particular year, whether over or under the estimates, were less noticeable, and were of less comparative importance, before the final payment of the public debt, at the close of 1834, as that payment, from time to time, corrected any irregularity, and superseded what will often hereafter be inevitable without due precaution : the necessity of a resort to new legislation whenever any considerable excess or deficiency happens to nccur in the whole revenue.
Besides what has already been remarked on the influence which the increased cultivation of cotton in this country has in various ways exercised, and is likely to exercise hereafter, in our revenue from customs and
lands, it might be made a subject of further and very interesting inquiry in connection with the uncertainty of the estimates on those subjects, affecting, as that cultivation does, more remotely, not only our revenue from lands and customs, but the balance of trade and the export of specie, as well as the continuance, by means of mutual dependence among great interests, of many of our peaceful and prosperous relations, both at home and abroad. But without entering, on this occasion, into further det coucerning any of these points it may be mentioned as a very striking result connected with the last one, and as furnishing a strong presumption in favor of greater exemption hereafter from fluctuations by war and commercial restrictions, that while the quantity of cotton exported from this country has increased from half a million of pounds in 1790, to over three hundred and eighty millions in 1835, and has exceeded in value, during six of the ten last years, all our other exports of domestic products of every description, the manufacture of it at home, and chiefly in the northern States, has increased, from consuming only a few bales more, to ninety millions of pounds yearly, and to that extent creates a new and strong bond of reciprocal advantage and harmony. And that while we now furnish, instead of the small quantity in the first years of our Government, quite fifteen-sixteenths of the whole consumption of raw cotton by England, and seven-tenths of that by France, all the present exports of it to Europe, from all the rest of the world, do not probably equal, if those two nations could obtain the whole, one-third of what they now consume, or one-fourth of what they now import from the United States alone. And thus, while neither of them produces any of the raw article, except a liulę in some remote dependencies, that they have an annual manufacture now relying on it, ayd chiefy on the United States, equal in France to eighty millions of dollars, and in England to one hundrecht and eighty millioos of dollars ; and constituting in the latter, after it supplies her own large necessities at home, over one-half in value of her great annual exports to all quarters of the globe.
Explanation of Estimated Receipls from Miscellaneous sources.
The estimate of receipts from bank dividends has been inade at the usual rate, computed on the present amount of stock still owned by the United States, independent of what belongs to the navy pension fund. Should the bank divide a part of its capital, aster the 3d of March next, and before the close of the year 1836, the dividends received for interest or profits, will probably be somewhat lot er ; but, on the other hand, there will then be received into the Treasury, instead of them, a due proportion of the capital stock.
This Department made reasonable inquiries of the bank itself, as to its probable course, in respect to the division of its capital, with a view 10 apprize Congress of the revenue which ought to be anticipated from that source in 1836, but, extraordinary as it may appear, at a period so near the close of its charter, and after the discontinuance of several of its branches, it will be seen by the correspondence annexed, that the bank had then come to no decision on the subject.
The sales of bank stock to the navy pension fund, will probably not be deemed advisable by Congress, after the 3d March next, and hence the receipts from those sales have been estimated less than usual.