be chiefly obviated by an increased importation and consumption of foreign merchandise. But it has been already stated, that the whole importations were of late so unusually large, as with other causes hereafter explained, not only to forbid any reasonable expectation of their

increase in 1836, but to render a reduction probable ; and, it is further believed, a careful inquiry will show, that the consumption of all kinds of foreign merchandise in the United States has generally enlarged in a smaller ratio than is supposed by inany, and especially that the use of such as pays duties, which is the cardinal test of our receipts from customs, will rather lessen than increase in 1826, and be not materially enlarged till after 1842. By the table before referred to, which is the most accurate the records of the Treasury enable me to prepare, it will be seen what our consumption of foreign merchandise of all kinds has been during each of the last forty-five years. By comparing, not single years with others, but a series of three years, as for instance, 1792, '93, and '94, with other similar series after intervals of ten years, and paying less regard to the first and third series, as the former rests on estimates made now, and not on valuations at the time, and the latter, being in a period of war, is too irregular for a guide, it appears that the average increase of consumption of all foreign merchandise has been not three per cent. annually in the last thirty years, and has been not equal to the increase of our population during the same period by over one and a half per cent.

While the increase of the latter has also been very uniform, varying between every census, and for the whole time very steadily between four and a half and five per cent that of the former has fluctuated largely, rising under the great impulse given to credit, industry, and enterprise, by the adoption of our constitution, to near seven per cent. yearly, during most of the first ten years, and then falling to only about one per cent. the next twenty years. After that, by one of those customary rides in trade which alınost periodically occur soon after checks to overtrading, an exhaustion of old stocks of goods, and enlarged means to purchase, from abundant crops, their high prices, or any other cause, the rate iucrease in consumption rose again ; and by reason of so many free goods, and especially the unprecedented imports of specie in 1833 and 1834, amounted, on au average, during the last ten years, to four per cent. annually. Deduct, however, that excess of specie alone, and the increase would not much exceed three per cent. on the consumption of all kinds of foreign merchandise, while on that of such merchandise as pays duties there has, as before detailed, been a great decrease; and there is no likerihood of much permanent increase till the whole importations shall be great. ly augmented, or the tariff be again extended to a larger list of articles. By the customary reflux of that tide from opposi'e causes, and the greater substitution of some kinds of domestic products, it is believed that the above rate of increase as to all foreign articles, will again soon decline, and probably remain much below that of our population, until new legislation, or the essential alterations now going on in the tariff, shall mateially enlarge the amount of goods paying a low duty. As the capacity of the country to purchase foreign goods will, all other things remaining pqual, be then eolarged in the ratio of what it does not pay for duties, such alterations, when their influence shall be fully felt in 1842, will, as the great alterations in 1332 and 1833 have already done, doubtless tend

again to augment somewhat the whole importations and consumption of foreigo articles. Another comparative view, perhaps more striking, of this consumption, is, that according to the value of the articles as estimated at the custonı-house, its' average amount in 1790 and '91 was about seven dollars per head to our population ; in 1800 and 1801, over ten dollars per head; in 1810 and '11, about seven; but in 1820 and '21, ouly about six ; and in-1830 and '31, only about five, or one-half of what it was thirty years before. This great difference has probably arised, not only from the increased domestic production of certain manufactures, such as cottons, woollens, salt, and iron, and of some articles more immediately connected with agriculture, such as sugar and molasses, but from a fall in the price of many articles, making the value less of a similar quantity consumed, and from a greater extension of our population into the West, where the independent habits of the people, and the comparatively enhanced cost of foreign articles, would tend to cause a smaller consumption of them than near the sea-board, where their price is lower, and it is customary to depend more on foreign supplies.

It will be noticed that all the above computations have been made of the value, and not the quantities of the articles consumed. The latter would be more difficult to exhibit in so great detail and fullness. But if they could be, the result would, in a view connected with political economy, be more satisfactory, as showing more clearly the comparative habits of our population at different periods ; because 'prices, especially of some manufactures, have fallen during the last forty years, probably, on an average, over fifty per cent, and our whole consumption of foreign articles has, without doub:, diminished more in value than in quantity

But the difficulties before mentioned have prevented any further exhibit, coupled with the circumstance, that, in respect to the amount of duties, the inquiry now most pertinent and material, the result, in the present state of the tariff, would be much less important than some might at first imagine, as it would be wholly unaltered in all cases of specific rates of duty, whether the values or the quantities be detailed in the statements, and equally unaltered in over half of all the foreign goods now imported, they being at present free, and the rate of increase in their consumption, by additions to our population, or other causes, há ving no influence whatever on the revenue.

Hence, in looking to the future, it is essential to notice, that, if the increase in consumption of all foreign gnods should continue to be on an average till 1842, as large as during the last thirty years, it would only and yearly about one and one quarter millions 10 the imports of goods which are now duriable, and on which the average revenue would not probably exceed two hundred and fifty thousand dollars per annum. But it is presumed that the increasing substitution in our importations for consumption, of free for dutiable goods, when the former will answer the desired purposes of the community, will, on account of their comparative cheapness, make the free rather than the dutiable goods usually increase, and be frequently in a rutio quite large enough to counteract or neutralize the effects of any tendency tò augment the revenue, by an increased consumption of all kinds of foreign goods.

The commercial returos for 1835 were not received so as to be used in any of the above computations ; but, so far as now ascertained and esti

mated, they are given in the table, and furnish another illustration of the fluctuating character of our foreign trade, and the uncertainty of any statements founded on it, which do bot extend to comparisops of various and distant periods of time.

The exports of domestic produce in the ensuing year, will, as before remarked, exert some iofluence on the amount of importations, and hence on the revenue from customs. But the effect of those exports on our importations for immediate consumption, including all but specie, and other articles to be again exported, will in reality always be less than is

sometimes supposed ; provided the domestic supplies - similar articles should, as of late years, continue rapidly to increase, and should prove to be equal in quality, and not higher in price, than similar ones imported from foreign nations. In that event, though the ability of the people to buy foreign goods will fortunately be greater, where the exports are large, yet the permanent returns from abroad will generaliy be more in money to be expended at home, and less in goods to be consumed. But the diversity of opinion which exists, concerning some of these considerations, has led me to submit the document annexed.

Froin this it appears that our whole exports, of every kind, in the last five years, including the estimates for 1835, have not exceeded those during| a similar term, from 1803 to 1807 inclusive, but about forty millions, and being an excess no larger then at most intervening periods, while an extraordinary increase has taken place jo our exports of domestic products, exceeding in value those during that term more than one hundred and fifty millions, and being quite double the excess at most intervening periods. Iudeed, it will be seen that they have been almost a hundred per cent. larger than they were in any similar term of years previous to 1816, and have exceeded those during such a term only ten years ago, by the sum of about one hundred and fifteen millions, a difference greater than the whole amount of all our exports of domestic products during the first five years under our present formi of Government. The recent average rate of increase in these exports, however, has been large, independent of the article of cotton; nor is it likely to auginent during the fe'w ensuing years.

Adopting a comparison between every term of ten years, from 1792 '3, and '4, to 1832, '3 and 4, and, including all articles, it appears that the whole exports of domestic produce exhibit an increase in the last thirty years, of less than three per cent. annually, or a rate considerably lower

than that of our population, though, in the previous term of ten years, by the great prosperity from our new form of Government, and the rapid progress in the cultivation of cotron, that increase was near eight per cent.; and in the high price and large exports of this article in the last term of ten years, it has been about five per cent. annually. But as that price has of late been unusually high, and is now lower, and as the demand for cotion abroad in the ensuing year is not likely to exceed, if lit equals, the late customary ratio, and on which some interesting facts may be seen in the statement annexect, the value of our whole domestic exports (over one-half of which now consists of cofton) will probably be less in 1836 than 1835. This result, therefore, fortifies, rather than impairs, the correctness of the diminished estimate of our whole importations in 1836, and of the anticipated receipts of duties therefrom.

On the whole, then, as the biennial reduction in those duties which VoL. SIV

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exceed twenty per cent. takes place on the 31st instant, and will amount to dear one million of dollars, as in the ensuing year the whole importations will, by the estimates, be less, and the consumption of foreign articles paying duties is for that and other reasons not likely to increase, it results, from these and some circumstances before mentioned, that the whole amount of revenue which will be received from imports during the year 1836, will probably be from one to two millions less than in 1835. If we look forward to 1842, when the tariff is, by our present laws, to undergo a great change, and if we regard, in the intervening time, the

probable exports of domestie produce and imports of foreign merchandise, or the presumed consumption of that sinall portion of the latter paying

duties, it may fairly be concluded, that after making due allowances as to all these, on account of our increasing population and wealth, and deducting those allowances from the biennial reduction, not only will the revenue accruing from customs probably niininish at the average rate of about one-third of a million per annum, or near two-thirds of a million every second year until the first of January, 1842, but then, at one blow, over two and a half millions more of the duties above twenty per cent. is to be struck off; and on the first of July, the same year, over two and a half millions niore, and some new articles, for the first time, be rendered entirely free. All the reduction which is to take place in that year alone, will thus amount to between five and six millions of dollars; and the whole annual revenue from customs will, by 1843, have probably falen to about nive, instead of its present amount,, of about seventeen millions of dollars.

Explanalion of the Estimates of Receipts from Lands. · The revenue from lands the ensuing year, has been estimated at four millions of dollars. In submitting the estimates for 1835, the amount expected to be received from this source, was, for reasons then stated, calculated half a million higher than it had ever been before, and was described as still too low, if the Department had not anticipated that large sales would be made for the India'ns, the proceeds of which were not to go into the Treasury for public uses. But these last sales, delayed

till the first month in the next year, have unexpectedly given place to others, all whose proceeds have so gone into the Treasury. This change, with the operation, in such unexampled force, of the circinnslances detailed in those reasons, aided by such an eager thirst for the investment of surplus capital in new lands, and the bright prospects of large profits from their immediate cultivation for coiion in the southwest, with the extraordinary number of pre-eniprion claims allowed, has caused the

actual receipts from their sales, during the year 1835, 10 exceed these or any previous year, by the sum of probably more than six inillions or dollars.

From the fact that many of these sa les have not been made to aciual settlers, and that much of the land thus sold will remain in the market to aid in supplying herealier such purchasers ; from the probability that some diminution in the price of colion, with the increased cost of labor, will lessen somewhat the ardor for new investments in land in the southwest ; from the ciccumsiances that much sewer pre-emption claims exist, and sewer, public sales of lands whose proceeds belong to the Govern

ment, hy over two millions of acres, will be advertised the ensuing year; and from the presumption that the surplus capital to be re-invested, derived from the final payınent of our public debt, and from the unusually great exports the last two years, will be reduced, it has not been deemed safe to estinate the receipts, for public purposes, from sales of land in 1836, at more than four millions of dollars.

Besides those receipts, the sales of the Chicka saw lands, postponed as before remarked, to the ensuing year, will probably be considerable, as the quantity offered will be about six millious of acres; and though, by treaty, the proceeds of them must be invested for the Indians, yet the sales will, to their extent, diminish the demand for other lands, whose proceeds would go into the Treasury. In looking beyond the next, and a few. succeeding years, as connected with this subject, it is true that the whole lands still owned by the United States, within the boundaries of the present States and Territories, exceed the vast quantity of three hundred and thirty millions of acres; and, west of Missouri and Arkan. sas, perhaps seven hundred and fifty millions more, of which only seventy or eighty millions have yet been specially assigned to the Indians, or in any other way absolutely appropriated.' But though three hundred and thirty millions of acres would alone be enough in quantity, at even the rate of the recent large sales, to continue, for a considerable time, to yield an important share of revenue, it must be remembered, that a demand

for it will be limited generally by the extent of the increase of our popu. lation and capital; and that large portions of it, perhaps one-fourth,

ought to be deemed waste and water; and probably half of it, as well as much of that which lies west of the present States and Territories, be considered of such an inferior quality, that it cannot be sold for cultivation till our population reaches an amount and density which will proba

bly require ages to effect. In illustration of some of these views, it is a reinarkable fact, that, of the whole quantity of land surveyed and offered at public sale, from 1789 to 1834, being about one hundred and twenty. two millions of acres, not one-third of it has been sold for any purpose

whatever; and that the whole receipts, being a little under fifty millions of dollars, from the whole sales of public lands during that period, have furnished only a small amount, not exceeding three or four millions of neti revenue, beyond the whole cost, in various ways, attending their purchase and management.

But a considerable nett revenue from them, hereafter, if neither given away nor divided, ca'n with safely be expected, and they would-then tend to furnish that relief under the common burdens, and that aid towards the common and legitimate objects of the Union, which were intended to be prompied by their original cession to the General Government. The present rate of increase in our population engaged in agricultural pursuits, will not, it is presumed, for six or seven years, create a regular annual demand for immediate cultivation of over one million of acres of the public lands; and it is calculated that from two to four millions more will be bought yearly for investment of capital and re-sale.

The estimate for that time proceeds on the probable presumption that no very large portion of our old cultivated lands will be wholly abandoned, and that the new lands annually put into cultivation in the whole Union, have been, and will be to the amount of quite one-half those